Investigating Imbalances in Manufacturing Trade
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Researchers found that manufacturing imports have caused dislocation and triggered protectionist pressures. This paper investigates whether manufacturing exports from China, Germany, and other exporters are disproportionate. Gravity model results indicate that Germany’s exports in 2015 were 24 percent more than predicted and China’s exports 5 percent less than predicted. However, China’s exports to North America were 71 percent more than predicted and China’s exports to East Asia 46 percent less than predicted. East Asia’s intra-regional exports were also 36 percent less than predicted. Dynamic ordinary least squares findings indicate that export price elasticities are higher for China, Korea, Taiwan, the UK and the US and lower for Germany and Japan.
Abstract
Researchers found that manufacturing imports have caused dislocation and triggered protectionist pressures. This paper investigates whether manufacturing exports from China, Germany, and other exporters are disproportionate. Gravity model results indicate that Germany’s exports in 2015 were 24 percent more than predicted and China’s exports 5 percent less than predicted. However, China’s exports to North America were 71 percent more than predicted and China’s exports to East Asia 46 percent less than predicted. East Asia’s intra-regional exports were also 36 percent less than predicted. Dynamic ordinary least squares findings indicate that export price elasticities are higher for China, Korea, Taiwan, the UK and the US and lower for Germany and Japan.
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