원조규모가 원조효과성에 미치는 영향 분석-정부지출의 매개변인효과를 중심으로
An Analysis of the Aid Effectiveness of Aid Volume -Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Government Expenditure
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본 연구는 폭발적인 원조규모 증가에도 실제 원조효과성이 나타나지 않는 현실 하에, 원조효과성 제고를 위해 수원국 정부의 재정적 개입의 영향력에 초점을 맞추었다. 이를 위해 원조규모가 원조효과성에 미치는 영향의 경로 중 재정지출을 통한 매개효과를 분석하였다. 분석 대상 섹터는 OECD DAC 공여국의 원조규모가 높은 사회 인프라 분야 중 교육섹터이며, 편의(bias)를 제거하기 위해 교육수준이 유사한 대륙별로 나누어서 분석을 실시하였다. 분석방법은 매개효과 분석을 위한 Baron & Kenny의 3단계 검증 방법에 따라 패널회귀모델 중 고정효과 모형을 채택하였다. 분석결과, 두 집단 모두에서 재정지출이 유의미한 매개효과가 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 본 연구를 통해 수원국의 재정정책이 원조효과성에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 따라서 우리나라 원조정책의 효과성을 제고하기 위해서 원조조화를 고려한 원조 배분 정책을 시행하여야 할 것이다.
Abstract
This study was conducted to analyze how aid volume affects the effectiveness of aid through the mediating effect of government expenditure, under the reality that skepticism towards aid effectiveness has been emerging as a critical issue with an explosive increase in the aid volume. To this end, educational sector among the social infrastructure sectors was selected to be analyzed, because of high level of ODA volume from OECD DAC donor countries, and the analysis was conducted by dividing it into continents with similar levels of education to remove the potential research bias. As for the analysis method, a fixed effect model was adopted among the panel regression models according to Baron & Kenny's three-step verification method for mediating effect analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was found that fiscal expenditure had a significant mediating effect in both groups, and through this study, it was confirmed that the fiscal policy of the recipient countries could affect the aid effectiveness. Therefore, in order to improve the effectiveness of Korea’s ODA, it is necessary to implement an aid distribution policy in consideration of aid harmonization.
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