북핵 문제의 새로운 발전 추세와 중국의 대응

Abstract

The last couple of years have shown that an issue that has placed the Northeast Asia region in a much perplexing situation-namely, North Korea’s nuclear program- is starting to exhibit steady progress. This paper seeks to extract the following points on the said subject: 1) Despite progress on U.S.-DPRK nuclear negotiations, there exists significant distance from initial goal of denuclearization; 2) Inter-Korean cooperation and progress thereof has been delayed due to North's nuclear ambitions; 3) DPRK-Japan relations have come to a stalemate with no tangible fruits to be had from the nuclear crisis; and 4) Discussions on security cooperation under a Northeast Asia framework has stalled due to lack of progress on the nuclear front. Moreover, the paper suggests three possible scenarios on North’s nuclear issue. First consists of all actors in the Six-party talks accepting of a method to reach a ‘basic resolution’ on the subject. Meanwhile, the second entails the issue of being prolonged indefinitively. Lastly, the third is where tensions between the U.S. and DPRK are heightened due to the delay in progress and subsequent lack of patience on behalf of the U.S. In conclusion, the paper recommends the following points on how China, a direct stakeholder in the nuclear talks, should respond: 1) Continue to pursue participation in the Six-party talks, as well as denuclearization of the Korean peninsula; 2) Prevent tensions from recurring between North-South Korea and from new conflicts from rising; 3) Strengthen economic relations with the DPRK and facilitate gradual liberalization of the DPRK; 4) Consistently develop ROK-China relations; and 5) Reinforce research on the Korean peninsula and issues concerning Northeast Asia.