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민주적 대통령제와 국방안보의 딜레마: 국내정치적 요인과 국방비 지출 상관관계를 중심으로

Democratic Presidentialism on the National Defense: How Do Domestic Political Conditions Complicate the Defense Budget Making Process?

노경현
한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2023.04|국방정책연구 (The Quarterly Journal of Defense Policy Studies)|제39권 제1호|pp. 115-144|DOI 10.22883/jdps.2023.39.1.004

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키워드

대통령제divided governmentpresidentialism국방비안보-복지 딜레마단점-분점 정부defense budgetguns vs butter dilemma

초록

기존연구에 따르면, 민주적 국가가 권위주의 국가보다, 의원내각제가 대통령제보다 더 낮은 국방비 지출 경향성을 보인다고 한다. 그렇다면 민주적 대통령제에서 국내 정치세력 간 갈등은 이러한 예산 결정에 어떤 영향을 미칠 것인가?. 특히 공공재의 대표적 사례인 국방비에도 영향을 미치는가? 본 연구는 이러한 문제의식에 기반하여 총 93개의 대통령제 국가의 1980년부터 2021년까지 패널 데이터를 대상으로 고정효과 모형의 패널 분석을 통해 통계분석을 진행한다. 통계분석 결과 민주주의 여부는 대통령제에서도 GDP 대비 국방비 비중에 음의 상관관계를 보였으며, 몇몇 국내정치적 요인이 민주주의와 교차항일 경우 통계적 유의미성을 보임을 확인했다.

Abstract

It is said that the democratic nations, in general, spend less on arms than their autocratic counterparts. Then, “would there be a propensity on military expenditure as well among democratic nations according to the political system they adopt and the situation they face?” In other words, “would ‘Presidentialism make differences in investing in arms, and if it does, would there be a significant change on the military budgets when the opposition takes the majority?” This is a question that rings. Presidentialism has its own idiosyncratic check and balances-separation of powers- system, if operated correctly. So it may well have a situation where the ruling party takes the government while the opposition holds the parliament at the same time, sacrificing the military budget plan over the domestic power game. Parliamentarianism, on the other hand, is exempted from inter-branch disputes theoretically. The hypothesis is that under presidentialism, a ruling government would have a harder time to pass a larger military budget when the national assembly is held by the opposition. The result of the panel analysis shows that the divided government condition does affect the amount of defense budget negatively as well as some other domestic political conditions under democratic presidentialism.

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