항만 폐쇄의 국가 경제적 파급효과 분석- 수요유도형 모형과 공급유도형 모형의 적용 -

Abstract

An explosion that killed 173 people and injured several hundred others at Tianjin port on Wednesday, 12 August 2015 and the subsequent port disruption this precipitated has led to increased social concerns for port safety. Port shutdowns caused by unexpected phenomena such as natural disasters, port labor strikes, and technological accidents can generate negative impacts on the entire national economy, as inputs for intermediate and final consumption cannot be transported, causing disruptions down the supply chain, while exports for foreign markets are obstructed, causing production disruptions up the supply chain. Given that the spill-over effects of a port shutdown involve potential losses, an explicit estimate of such impacts can serve as a reference point in strategic planning for port safety. In this regard, this study analyzed economic impacts of the port shutdown using input-output analysis (i.e. demand-driven and supply-driven models). Specifically, Ulsan Port was selected as the research object with regard to port throughput and the probability of diversion routes. Moreover, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) members’ oil-reserve rules, the period of the port shutdown was meant to not exceed three months. The impacts of the port shutdown directly refer to the impacts of import, export, and on-site port operation disruptions. Production, added value, employee pay, and employment numbers were considered as measures of economic impacts of the port shutdown. Analysis results reveal that a three-month total shutdown of Ulsan Port induced a large drop in production of “petroleum and coal products,” “transportation equipment,” and “chemicals and allied products,” and an overall reduction of 1.1% in GDP. In particular, if Ulsan Port is completely disrupted for three months, employment rates in the Ulsan region will drop by as much as 10.6% as production would decline in many industries. Given the significant negative impacts of a port shutdown, the development of a port risk management system for safety and resilience is surely necessary. Accordingly, analysis results will offer critical information on the risk benefits of constructing such a system, which can be measured by multiplying the estimates of negative impacts by the probability of a shutdown accident. We combined trade statistics from the transportation mode recorded by the Korea Customs Service with a regional input-output table, which allowed us to generate detailed maritime export and import data by industry. Such combination of input-output tables with another relevant source may enlarge the range of application of inter-industry analysis. By empirically exploring the economic impacts of the Korean port shutdown for the first time, this study will contribute to expanding the scope of port logistics research. Finally, we expect that the results will provide the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries with overarching information for formulating policies to address port safety issues.