항만 폐쇄의 파급효과 분석: X-이벤트의 관점에서

Abstract

Generally, ports represent the major national infrastructure to ensure rapid and seamless transportation of import and export cargoes. For example, 99.7% of the volume of import and export cargoes in Korea was handled by marine transportation. Ports with normal operation state obviously play a pivotal role in national economic development. Thus, the port disruptions and shutdowns caused by unexpected accidents such as natural disasters or port transportation union strikes can generate negative impacts on the entire national economy. Meanwhile, recently social concerns for safety have grown gradually since unexpected tremendous accidents such as the roof collapse of resort located in Gyeongju, the Sewol ferry sinking, and the ventilation grate collapse in Pangyo Techno Valley took place one after the other in 2014. In accordance with these situations, the development of port risk management system for safety and resilience is certainly required. This study analyzed a variety of enablers, triggers, spill-over effects, and causal relationships of the port shutdown from the perspective of X-events. Given that X-events are defined as the extreme events induced by nature and human beings with severely low probability and enormous impacts, many researches on X-events mainly aim at developing early warning systems and preemptive correspondence strategies against new types of extreme events. With such background, this study carried out a round-table brainstorming session with various experts in port operation, logistics, risk management, and X-events and employed system dynamics methodology for drawing a scenario map and a causal loop of the port shutdown. Analysis results reveal that the port shutdown will lead to the decline in gross output of most industries which involve manufacturing, energy, logistics, construction, tourism, health care, and others. In addition, it is expected that the employment market situation and national health level will sequentially be threatened by the decline in production of many industries. Especially, the imbalance between supply and demand of energy and electricity is likely to provoke serious interruptions of electric service and social anxieties. Based on analysis results, we suggest several policy instruments against the port shutdown - the preparation of elaborate contingency plans of port functions with designated substitute berths, the establishment of governance structures for port risk management through total periods, and the arrangement of the standardized manual on the port shutdown in charge of Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries. This study can be applied to the development of effective strategies for preventing the negative spill-over effects induced by the port shutdown and the preparation of optimal policy portfolios for port risk management. Furthermore, it is expected that analysis results will definitely provide significant sources pertaining to port safety policies. Finally, introducing the concept as well as methodology of X-events to the port logistics field for the first time will contribute to expanding the scope of the port logistics research.