트럼프 정부 하 미국의 대중국 관세가 한국 및 글로벌 경제에 미친 영향

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the United States' tariffs on China under the Trump administration on the Korean and global economies. In the latter part of the 2010s, the dominant theme in global trade was the rise of protectionism. Particularly, the Trump administration's substantial tariff increases resembled the radical measures taken during the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s. Among these, the U.S.-China tariffs triggered immediate retaliatory tariffs from China, escalating the U.S.-China trade dispute, which continues to this day. While the current U.S.-China trade dispute carries even larger implications, particularly in terms of technological and intellectual property battles, the impact on the global economy from tariff wars cannot be ignored. This study aimed to analyze the extent of this impact. The analysis predicts that China would be experiencing the greatest decrease in welfare due to mutual tariffs between the U.S. and China. The majority of China's welfare decrease was attributed to deteriorating terms of trade, with a partial impact from reduced trade volume. On the other hand, the U.S. actually enjoyed an increase in welfare, primarily due to improvements in terms of trade. These differences can be interpreted as a result of the asymmetrical trade structure between the two countries. The U.S.-China tariffs significantly diminished the demand for Chinese products in the U.S., contributing to a decrease in the prices of Chinese exports on the global market. This decrease in China's export prices led to deteriorating terms of trade, resulting in welfare losses for China.