글로벌가치사슬(GVC) 참여가 생산성에 미치는 효과 분석
Global Value Chains and Productivity in Korea Industry: Does the Position of Participation Matter?
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초록
본 연구는 한국 산업을 대상으로 선형패널모형을 이용해 GVC 참여가 생산성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 주요 결과는 다음과 같이 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, GVC 참여율 상승은 생산성에 양(+)의 효과를 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 10%p 참여율이 상승하면 실질부가가치 증가율은 0.03%p, 1인당 실질부가가치는 0.02% 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 후방참여율 상승 역시 생산성에 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 구체적으로 GVC 참여율이 10%p 상승하면 실질부가가치 증가율은 0.02p% 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 1인당 실질부가가치를 기준으로 할 경우에도 결과는 동일하였다. 둘째, GVC 위치를 설명변수로 하여 생산성에 미치는 영향을 추정한 결과 후방참여율이 상승할수록 즉, 하류(downstrem)산업의 상대적 비중이 상승할수록 생산성에 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었으며 통계적으로도 유의하였다. 셋째, 생산성과 GVC 참여 간 역인과관계 가능성으로 인한 내생성 문제를 해결하기 위해 2단계최소자승법, GMM 및 시스템 GMM 등의 추정방법을 사용해 고정효과모형을 추정하였다. 2단계최소자승법에 따른 추정결과 GVC 참여율 상승은 생산성 향상에 긍정적 영향을 미쳤다. 넷째, 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 GVC 참여도가 전세계적으로 하락하였는데, 이러한 무역구조변화가 생산성에 미친 효과를 분석하였다. 추정결과 GVC 참여는 생산성에 통계적으로 유의한 양(+)의 영향을 미쳤으나, 영향의 크기는 금융위기 이전에 비해 감소하였다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the impact of Global Value Chain (GVC) participation on productivity for Korean industries. The key findings can be summarized as follows. First, increase in GVC participation rate has a positive impact on productivity. According to the empirical results, a 10%p increase in GVC participation rate leads to a 0.03%p increase in real value-added growth and a 0.02% increase in per capita real value-added. Second, the study found that an increase in upstream participation, indicating a higher relative share of downstream industries, has a positive impact on productivity, and this effect was statistically significant. Third, to address endogeneity issues related to productivity and GVC participation, this study employed estimation methods such as Two-Stage Least Squares, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and System GMM. The results from the Two-Stage Least Squares method also indicated a positive impact of GVC participation on productivity. Fourth, the study analyzed the effects of the structural changes in global trade and the decrease in GVC participation after the 2008 global financial crisis. The estimation results showed that GVC participation continues to have a statistically significant positive impact on productivity, but the magnitude of this impact has decreased compared to the period before the crisis.
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