북한의 ‘후계자’론과 현실: 이론의 형해화와 현실의 계승

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and predict the future, results and limitations of succession in North Korea by examining the 'theory of succession'. Until now, too much focuses have been taken into the 'person' in the succession issue of North Korea. It is natural to have interests in 'person', but in the view of the social science, more important thing is to focus on the 'changes in the succession' in North Korea and the following result these changes will make in North Korean politics and society. Assuming that 'changes in theory' in Socialist state reflects and also brings along the 'changes in the actual society,' this paper examines the 'changes in the succession theory' of North Korea and analyzes expected problems, influences and power structure transformations that the changes in theory will bring to North Korea. Now, North Korea seems to select the 'succession of reality' considering actual limits and needs of current society, not choosing the 'succession of theory' based on the 'succession theory' which have been established in its history. The 'limits of the times' and 'necessity of reality' make North Korea to inevitably choose 'succession of reality' . If this succession process repeats, whole process will cause changes in political culture and structure of North Korea. It is hard to predict when the changes will be significant in near future, but apparently current succession can be indicated as the first step of possible change. Therefore analyzing focusing on the changes in theory and structure can have much more implications than analyzes focusing on 'who' is the successor.