한국의 외환위기와 안정화정책: 금융정책을 중심으로
Korean Currency Crisis and Monetary Policy as a Stabilization Policy Measure
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본고는 1997년 한국의 외환위기 당시 국제통화기금(IMF)이 처방했던 안정화 정책의 문제점을 금융정책을 중심으로 살펴본다. 위기 이후에 한국경제가 겪었던 극심한 경기침체가 과도한 긴축정책(overkill)들로 인한 부작용이었다는 것을 Taylor(1991)의 세 가지 갭 모델을 이용하여 보인다. 이글은 이러한 IMF의 정책처방이 화폐론자들의 이론에서 도출될 수밖에 없는 귀결이고, 또 이들의 이론은 경제의 총산출이 공급측면에 의해 주어지는 것으로 보기 때문에 총수요의 변동에 따른 경기침체의 위험이 배제될 수밖에 없음을 보인다. 본 연구는 위기 이후 한국경제는 한꺼번에 사용된 과도한 긴축정책들의 영향으로 총수요의 붕괴로 고통 받게 되었다는 것을, 또 1998년 후반기 이후의 경제회복은 확장적 정책들의 시행이 도움이 되었으리라는 것을 보인다.
Abstract
This paper examines problems of stabilization policy measures, especially those of monetary policy measure prescribed by IMF in the aftermath of the 1997 Korean currency crisis. It shows that the Korean economy had suffered from the overkill due to contractionary measures using the three gap model a la Taylor(1991). This paper shows that those austere stabilization measures are unavoidable logical outcome from the neoclassical monetary economics, which presupposes output is fixed or determined from the supply side. This paper shows that the expansionary policy measures can help to stabilize the economy when the economy suffers from the overkill.
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