금융화의 발전과 자본축적 : 포스트 케인지언 분석
Financialisation and Capital Accumulation: A Post Keynesian Perspective
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포스트 케인지언 경제학자들은 칼레츠키의 성장 분배 모형을 이용해, 금융화의 요소들인 이자지불 증가, 배당지불 증가, 단기 수익성 중심으로의 기업경영 전략 변경, 야성적 혈기의 감소 등이 이윤율, 가동률, 축적 등에 어떤 효과를 가져다주었는지 분석해 왔다. 그러나 이들은 기업의 금융자산 투자 증가가 미치는 효과에 대해서는 거의 분석을 하지 않았다. 우리는이 논문에서 최근 기업활동에서 많이 나타나고 있는 기업의 금융자산 투자가 가동률, 이윤율, 축적률 등의 거시경제 변수에 어떤 효과를 미치는지 분석하였다. 동시에 이자지불과 배당지불 증가의 효과도 함께 분석하였다. 기업의 금융자산 투자 증가의 효과는, 다른 금융화의 요소들에 대한 기존의 분석과 같이, 투자 방정식과 저축 방정식에서 투자와 저축에 대한 각 변수들의 반응을 나타내는 계수 값의 크기에 따라 다른 결과를 보였다. 금융자산 투자의 실물투자 감소 효과가 금리생활자의 소비증가 효과보다 클 경우,금융투자 증가의 결과 가동률, 이윤율, 축적률이 모두 감소하는 ‘정상적인 경우’가 나타났다. 한편, 금융자산 투자의 실물투자 감소 효과가 금리생활자의소비증가 효과보다 아주 작고, 기업의 실물투자 감소에 따른 가속도 효과마저도 금리생활자의 소비증가 효과가 모두 압도할 경우는 금융투자 증가가 가동률, 이윤율, 축적률을 모두 증가시키는 ‘역설적인 경우’의 상태가 나타났다. 또한 기업의 금융자산 투자 증가 결과 이윤율과 가동률은 증가하지만 축적률은 감소하는 ‘중간적인 경우’도 나타났다. 이는 금리생활자의 소비증가효과가 크고 기업의 실물투자 감소 효과가 작다 할지라도, 금리생활자의 소비 증가 효과가 가속도 효과로 나타나는 실물투자 감소의 간접적 효과까지모두 상쇄하기에는 충분히 크지 못할 경우에 나타난다.
Abstract
The effects of financialisation on macroeconomic variables such as the rate of capacity utilization, the rate of profit rate, and accumulation rate have been analyzed by Post Keynesian. They have focused on the change of interest payment,dividend payment, the preference of firm to short term profitability, and animal spirits as the variables of financialisation. This paper analyses the effect of the increase of financial investment in firm on macroeconomic variables. As financialisation has been developed, firms have increased their investment in financial assets in place of real accumulation to seek short term profitability. The results of analysis show that the effects of financial investment have the three cases; normal case, puzzling case, and intermediate case,due to the relative size of parameters in the same way of the effects of the increase of interest and dividend payment.
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