한국경제의 구조변화와 지속성장 과제
Analysis of Structural Changes in the Korean Economy and Sustainable Growth
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대내외 환경변화에 따라 한국경제의 지속성장 가능성에 대한 관심이 커지고 있다. 본 연구는 한국경제에서 나타나고 있는 경제구조 변화 추세를 확인하고, 그러한 변화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 36개 OECD 회원국을 대상으로 22개년(1998~2019년) 동안 성립하였던 경제성장과 경제구조 사이의 상관성을 추정한다. 분석결과 경제성장과 경제구조 변화 사이에 통계적으로 유의한 상관성(탄력성)이 성립함을 확인한다. 글로벌 금융위기 전후로 한국경제에서 자본집약도, 대외개방도, 정부부채비율, 연구개발지출비율, 에너지원단위 등의 성장기여도가 감소함을 확인한다. 또한 경제구조 요인들 사이에 성립하였던 상관성, OECD 회원국의 평균적 탄력성 등을 가정하면, 재정지출비율 상승에 따른 부정적 효과의 크기와 다른 경제구조 개선을 통한 긍정적 효과의 크기가 유사하다. 한정된 공공재원을 합리적으로 배분하여 재정지출의 효율성을 제고할 수 있는 제도적 기반을 마련하는 것이 지속성장의 주요 과제이다.
Abstract
There is growing interest in the sustainability of Korean economic growth due to domestic and external factors. This study analyzes trends in economic structural changes and analyzes their effects on Korean economic growth. First, we estimate the correlation between economic structure and economic growth across 22 years (1998-2019) in 36 OECD member countries. We find statistically significant relationships (elasticities) between the variables constituting economic structure and economic growth. We show that after the Global Financial Crisis, the Korean economy faced a decrease in the contribution to economic growth of capital intensity, trade openness, government debt to GDP ratio, R&D expenditures to GDP ratio, and energy intensity. We consider the correlation between economic structural factors and the average elasticity among OECD member countries. From this, we find that the negative effect on economic growth due to increases in the fiscal expenditures to GDP ratio is similar in magnitude to the positive effect due to improvements in other economic structural factors. To achieve sustainable economic growth, it is crucial to use fiscal resources effectively in order to provide policies that economic agents can confidently believe.
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