미중 간의 갈등과 협력
US-China Conflict and Cooperation
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초록
이 연구는 미중 간 관계를 종합적으로 이해하기 국제정치학 이론 중 자유주의와 현실주의에 대해 고찰하였다. 미중 간 갈등은 점진적인 군사적 분야의 불확실성에도 불구하고 군사적 분야보다는 경제적 또는 사회적 분야에서 이루어 질 가능성이 높을 것이다. 현실주의자 들은 중국이 동아시아에서 주도적 지위를 가진 미국을 대체하고 미국과 미국의 우방 들 간의 관계를 바꾸며 시장과 천연자원에 대한 미국의 접근을 막고자 할 것이라고 본다. 자유주의자 들은 경제적 종속(economic interdependence)과 ‘공격(aggression)’의 잠재적 비용은 중국의 대외정책에 있어 억제력으로 작용할 것이라고 본다. 미중 양국이 전쟁을 수행한다고 가정해보면, 한 국가가 어떤 이익을 본다고 하기에는 그 대가와 손실이 너무나 거대할 것이다. 미중 간 무역 갈등이 양국 경제에 미치는 영향 역시 매우 클 것으로 보인다. 미중 양국은 불확실성과 갈등의 요인에도 불구하고 현명하게 정치적, 군사적, 경제적 협력을 추구하고 있다. 중국의 부상은 미국과의 경쟁에서 반드시 제로섬 게임(zero-sum game)이 되는 것은 아니다. 미중 간 전략적 협력은 발전기와 쇠퇴기를 거듭하며 닉슨 행정부 이후 양측간의 정책 대화, 함선 방문, 군사분야 고급 책임자의 상호방문 등을 통해 소통과 접촉을 이어왔다. 미국은 중국과 갈등구조를 보이고 있으나 실제로 미국기업들은 중국과 많은 비즈니스를 진행하고 있으며 미국의 많은 제조업체들이 중국에 해외직접투자 형태로 투자를 하고 있는 현실이다. 우리는 이시기에 경제측면에서는 반도체, 자동차 등 분야의 역량을 최대한 활용하고 군사분야에서는 국방력을 착실히 키우는 노력을 기울여야 할 것이다. 이를 통해 진정한 위기 상황에서 한국이 동맹국과 전략적 파트너를 선택할 수 있도록 할 수 있는 준비가 필요할 것으로 생각된다.
Abstract
This study examined Liberalism and Realism among the theories of international politics in order to examine the relationship between the United States and China. The competition between the United States and China is more likely to take place in the economic or social field rather than the military field, despite the gradually increasing military uncertainty. Realists view that China will try to replace the US, which has a leading position in East Asia, change the relationships between the US and its allies, and prevent the US’s access to markets and natural resources. Liberalists view that the potential cost of economic interdependence and 'aggression' will act as a deterrent power to China's foreign policies. When it is assumed that the US and China would conduct war, it can be seen that the cost and loss would be too huge to say that any one country would gain any advantage. The impact of the trade conflict between the US and China on the economies of the two countries is also expected to be very large. The US and China are wisely pursuing cooperation despite the factors for uncertainty and conflicts. China's rise will not necessarily lead to a zero-sum game in its competition with the United States. Strategic cooperation between the United States and China has repeated periods of development and periods of decline and continued communications and contacts since the Nixon administration through policy dialogues between the two sides, visits to ships, and mutual visits by senior military officials. Countries in geopolitical hubs such as South Korea and Taiwan will need wisdom and strategies to see the big picture of the international situations and dynamics as such and proceed with international relations, diplomacy, and economic cooperation. At this time, we should make the most of our capabilities in sectors such as semiconductors and automobiles in the economic aspect and steadily develop our defense capabilities in the military sector. Through this, it is thought that preparations are needed to allow South Korea to choose allies and strategic partners in a real crisis.
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