Shattering Myths and Assumptions: The Implications of North Korea’s Strategic Culture for U.S. Policy
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On May 25, North Korea conducted a second underground nuclear test in defiance of the international community. Many viewed this act as a provocative call for the attention of newly elected U.S. President Obama, and as a test of his administration’s North Korea policy. Yet was it? Analysis of North Korean behavior and the ability to predict its future actions is critical to the formulation of any policy, but especially one that attempts to achieve the ambitious goal of denuclearizing North Korea, something that the United States has been unable to achieve for nearly 20 years. However, much of the outside world’s understanding of North Korean behavior is predicated on deeply held assumptions and myths about the regime that need to be questioned and even abandoned. This article applies a strategic culture analysis to North Korea’s foreign policy formation and argues that doing so reveals serious flaws in assumptions pervade the dominant thinking on North Korea. These incorrect views not only limit policy options but favor those that may be least achievable. They also cause policy debates to focus on the style, rather than substance of the relevant issues, and cause misperceptions about assessing previous policy failures.
Abstract
On May 25, North Korea conducted a second underground nuclear test in defiance of the international community. Many viewed this act as a provocative call for the attention of newly elected U.S. President Obama, and as a test of his administration’s North Korea policy. Yet was it? Analysis of North Korean behavior and the ability to predict its future actions is critical to the formulation of any policy, but especially one that attempts to achieve the ambitious goal of denuclearizing North Korea, something that the United States has been unable to achieve for nearly 20 years. However, much of the outside world’s understanding of North Korean behavior is predicated on deeply held assumptions and myths about the regime that need to be questioned and even abandoned. This article applies a strategic culture analysis to North Korea’s foreign policy formation and argues that doing so reveals serious flaws in assumptions pervade the dominant thinking on North Korea. These incorrect views not only limit policy options but favor those that may be least achievable. They also cause policy debates to focus on the style, rather than substance of the relevant issues, and cause misperceptions about assessing previous policy failures.
참고문헌 (19)
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