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China’s Aspirations and the Clash of Nationalisms in East Asia: A Neoclassical Realist Examination

Randall L. Schweller
통일연구원 (YONSEI INSTITUTE FOR NORTH KOREAN STUDIES)|2014.12|International Journal of Korean Unification Studies|제23권 제2호|pp. 1-40|DOI 10.33728/ijkus.2014.23.2.001

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nationalismneorealismalliancesneoclassical realismChinese assertiveness

초록

This paper applies a neoclassical realist approach that combines systemic- and domestic-level variables to explain important aspects of the current global delegitimation phase. The key unit-level variable is nationalism, which interacts with structural-systemic factors to create unexpected behaviors for both the rising power and its threatened neighbors. With respect to China, nationalism interacts with its power status and trajectory to produce an increasingly assertive foreign policy regardless of whether it continues rising or stalls. With respect to China’s neighbors, nationalism makes it easier for leaders to mobilize public support for military preparation and sacrifices associated with internal balancing behaviors. But nationalism and other powerful domestic factors interact with system structure to constrain China’s neighbors from aligning with each other. These domestic restrictions that reduce the apparent flexibility of alliances under multipolarity partly explain the puzzling absence of a counter-balancing coalition against a rising and increasingly assertive China.

Abstract

This paper applies a neoclassical realist approach that combines systemic- and domestic-level variables to explain important aspects of the current global delegitimation phase. The key unit-level variable is nationalism, which interacts with structural-systemic factors to create unexpected behaviors for both the rising power and its threatened neighbors. With respect to China, nationalism interacts with its power status and trajectory to produce an increasingly assertive foreign policy regardless of whether it continues rising or stalls. With respect to China’s neighbors, nationalism makes it easier for leaders to mobilize public support for military preparation and sacrifices associated with internal balancing behaviors. But nationalism and other powerful domestic factors interact with system structure to constrain China’s neighbors from aligning with each other. These domestic restrictions that reduce the apparent flexibility of alliances under multipolarity partly explain the puzzling absence of a counter-balancing coalition against a rising and increasingly assertive China.

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