The Rise of China and Power Transition Scenarios in East Asia
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Power transition theory seems to imply that war between the United States andthe rising China is inevitable. However, in this article it is explained that a peacefulpower transition is possible. While there is uncertainty for China to successfullycatch up with the United States, the future regional power transition scenarios suggestthat the United States should make an effort to maintain power preponderance overChina. To do that, the United States has to expand its new alliance partnershipsand to efficiently manage its existing regional alliance system through its “pivotto Asia” policy. In that sense, the U.S. efforts to encourage Japan to become a“normal” state to share a larger military burden and to introduce the missile defensesystem in the region, including the THAAD system, to the Korean Peninsulawould be helpful for the United States. In addition, inducing China to be lessdissatisfied with the status quo is crucial for regional stability. The United Statesshould encourage its allies and friends in the region to increase their economicinterdependence with China and to participate actively in the China-led regionaleconomic institutions such as the AIIB. While maintaining power preponderance,inducing China to be less dissatisfied with the status quo is one answer that thepower transition theory provides for the United States to peacefully manage theera of the rising China in the region.
Abstract
Power transition theory seems to imply that war between the United States andthe rising China is inevitable. However, in this article it is explained that a peacefulpower transition is possible. While there is uncertainty for China to successfullycatch up with the United States, the future regional power transition scenarios suggestthat the United States should make an effort to maintain power preponderance overChina. To do that, the United States has to expand its new alliance partnershipsand to efficiently manage its existing regional alliance system through its “pivotto Asia” policy. In that sense, the U.S. efforts to encourage Japan to become a“normal” state to share a larger military burden and to introduce the missile defensesystem in the region, including the THAAD system, to the Korean Peninsulawould be helpful for the United States. In addition, inducing China to be lessdissatisfied with the status quo is crucial for regional stability. The United Statesshould encourage its allies and friends in the region to increase their economicinterdependence with China and to participate actively in the China-led regionaleconomic institutions such as the AIIB. While maintaining power preponderance,inducing China to be less dissatisfied with the status quo is one answer that thepower transition theory provides for the United States to peacefully manage theera of the rising China in the region.
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