On The Threshold of Power, 2011/12 Pyongyang’s Politics of Transition
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In 2010/11 Pyongyang has undergone several important changes which have adumbrated the politics of transition after Kim Jong-il. Within the regime, a series of incremental purges has taken place. A number of older cadres in the military and security institutions have fallen victim to substitution by members of Kim Jong-un’s coterie of supporters. The symbolic regeneration of the party-state system has been overshadowed by the clamorous rise of a younger generation of hawkish generals in the military. The regime’s self-proclaimed mission of constructing a “powerful and prosperous country” has turned sour. The poverty-stricken population has begun to harbor doubts about the future of the dynasty. The regime has applied such banal remedies as counter-mobilization and thought control. The regime’s drive to achieve nuclear power status represents its last resort to maintain legitimacy as a state. The reshuffling of elites as part of the successor’s pre-planned ascension has been accompanied by periodic intrusions by the new military into the jurisdictions of politics and diplomacy. An embellished transition without substantial reforms in dogged defense of the ancien regime epitomizes the outlook for 2012. Tactical reconciliation and military provocations will likely be employed by turns in order to overcome the potential resistance and instability following the death of Kim Jong-il and the atavistic third generation hereditary succession.
Abstract
In 2010/11 Pyongyang has undergone several important changes which have adumbrated the politics of transition after Kim Jong-il. Within the regime, a series of incremental purges has taken place. A number of older cadres in the military and security institutions have fallen victim to substitution by members of Kim Jong-un’s coterie of supporters. The symbolic regeneration of the party-state system has been overshadowed by the clamorous rise of a younger generation of hawkish generals in the military. The regime’s self-proclaimed mission of constructing a “powerful and prosperous country” has turned sour. The poverty-stricken population has begun to harbor doubts about the future of the dynasty. The regime has applied such banal remedies as counter-mobilization and thought control. The regime’s drive to achieve nuclear power status represents its last resort to maintain legitimacy as a state. The reshuffling of elites as part of the successor’s pre-planned ascension has been accompanied by periodic intrusions by the new military into the jurisdictions of politics and diplomacy. An embellished transition without substantial reforms in dogged defense of the ancien regime epitomizes the outlook for 2012. Tactical reconciliation and military provocations will likely be employed by turns in order to overcome the potential resistance and instability following the death of Kim Jong-il and the atavistic third generation hereditary succession.
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