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전략적 의사결정을 고려한 프로젝트 파이낸스 민자사업의 재무타당성 분석에 관한 연구

Financial Feasibility Analysis of Project Finance Considering Strategic Decision-making

김성일|전재범
국토연구원|2009.06|국토연구 (The Korea Spatial Planning Review)|제61권 |pp. 25-39|DOI 10.15793/kspr.2009.61..002

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참고문헌

키워드

Time Delay민간투자Private Investment투자지연전략적 의사결정Strategic Decision-MakingOption Pricing Theory옵션가격결정이론NPV법건설금융NPV(Net Present Value) AnalysisConstruction Financing

초록

전 세계의 많은 나라들이 사회기반시설의 조달에 있어서 정부재정의 한계를 극복하고 사업에 내포된 위험을 줄이기 위하여 민간사업자의 참여를 유도하여 왔으며 이러한 민관 파트너십의 성공적인 수행을 위해 프로젝트 파이낸스는 매우 효과적인 수단으로 여겨져 왔다. 일반적으로 프로젝트 파이낸스를 통한 사회기반시설사업에는 장기간에 걸쳐 대규모 자본이 소요되기 때문에 다양하고도 복잡한 불확실성들이 존재한다. 이 중 “투자지연”이라는 경영진의 전략적 의사결정은 대표적인 불확실성들 중 하나로서 직관적으로는 사업의 가치에 영향을 미치는 것으로 알려져 왔으나 기존의 자본예산이론인 NPV법으로 그 중요성을 적절히 평가할 수 없었다. 그러므로 이 연구는 프로젝트 파이낸스를 통한 사회기반시설의 조달에서 투자지연이라는 전략적 의사결정의 가치를 평가하기 위한 이론적인 틀을 제공하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 전체 사업가치에 대한 전략적 의사결정의 영향을 파악하기 위하여 금융 옵션가격결정이론에 기반한 실물옵션법이 적용되었다. 또한, 실물옵션법을 이용하여 얻은 투자지연의 가치를 NPV법에 의한 값과 비교, 분석하였다. 연구결과, 투자지연이라는 전략적 의사결정의 가치는 전체 사업가치에 상당한 영향을 미치는 것으로 파악되었으며 투자의 가부 결정 시 중요하게 고려되어야 할 것으로 밝혀졌다.

Abstract

Many countries in the world have attracted private participation, in providing infrastructures, to overcome limited funds and reduce risks involved in those projects. And, project finance is considered effective to accomplish this public-private partnerships. In general, there exist lots of complicated uncertainties in project finance due to long-term concession and huge project size. Among these uncertainties, the strategic decision-making of investment time delay has been problematic, even if it seems to have an impact on project value, because traditional capital budgeting theory, NPV analysis, fails to assess its contingency. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework in evaluating this strategic decision-making in project finance. To understand the impact of time delay on project value, real option framework based on financial option pricing theory is applied. In turn, the quantitative value of time delay obtained by real option framework is compared and analyzed with that of NPV analysis. At last, because the value of strategic decision-making appears significant against project value, it needs to be taken into account when implementing financial feasibility analysis.

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