이라크 내의 쉬아 무슬림 과격 운동에 관한 연구: 마흐디 민병대 형성기를 중심으로
A Study on the Iraqi Shia Muslim Radical Movement: Focused on the Formative Period of the Mahdi Army
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The main purpose of this article is to analysis the Iraqi Shia Muslim Radical Movement and recent developments in the Mahdi Army. Iraq still faces three major internal security risks: First, the resurgence of al-Qa’ida in Iraq; second, the risk that ethnic or sectarian tensions could turn violent, rather than be solved through political accommodation; third, the risk that a substantial element of the Mahdi Army will try to use violence to achieve political power–possibly with Iranian support. Most of the Mahdi Army seems to consist of young men with little training and discipline who could exploit a vacuum in security and governance in areas like Basra and Sadr City, but had no clear hierarchy, uncertain discipline, and limited war fighting capability. A number of cadres within the Mahdi Army seem more capable, but their current strength, the level of Sadr’s control, and their present willingness to fight sustained battles with Iraq’s growing security forces is unclear. The unknowns shaping the balance of power in terms of violence are matched by those shaping the balance of power in terms of religious influence, local and national politics, governance, local security and the rule of law, and economics.
Abstract
The main purpose of this article is to analysis the Iraqi Shia Muslim Radical Movement and recent developments in the Mahdi Army. Iraq still faces three major internal security risks: First, the resurgence of al-Qa’ida in Iraq; second, the risk that ethnic or sectarian tensions could turn violent, rather than be solved through political accommodation; third, the risk that a substantial element of the Mahdi Army will try to use violence to achieve political power–possibly with Iranian support. Most of the Mahdi Army seems to consist of young men with little training and discipline who could exploit a vacuum in security and governance in areas like Basra and Sadr City, but had no clear hierarchy, uncertain discipline, and limited war fighting capability. A number of cadres within the Mahdi Army seem more capable, but their current strength, the level of Sadr’s control, and their present willingness to fight sustained battles with Iraq’s growing security forces is unclear. The unknowns shaping the balance of power in terms of violence are matched by those shaping the balance of power in terms of religious influence, local and national politics, governance, local security and the rule of law, and economics.
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