이라크 민병대와 대리전 양상 연구
A Study on the Aspects of Iraqi Militias and Proxy Warfare
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이라크는 2014년 ISIS가 모술을 점령하자 무너진 이라크군을 대신하여 이라크 국가를 수호하고 국민의 생명을 지켜줄 보안체계로서 이라크의 주요 준군사집단의 연합체인 PMF를 구성했으며, 법의 테두리 안에서 영향력을 획득해나갔다. 주요한 참여 단체들은 주로 시아파 이슬람주의 운동조직들로 카타이브 헤즈볼라, 아사이브 아흘 알 하끄, 바드르 조직, 사드리스트 등 이란과 연계된 이슬람 민병대들이 이에 해당한다. 그렇지만 PMF 내부의 가장 강력한 민병대들은 이란의 대리로 간주되었다. 이라크는 2003년 이라크 전쟁 이후 좀처럼 안정화되지 못하였고 이런 취약성은 외부세력이 개입하기 용이한 환경을 제공했다. 그럼에도 불구하고 본고는 다음을 근거로 대리전의 틀에서 이라크를 설명하는데 한계가 있기 때문에 주의를 기울여야 한다는 점을 지적한다. 그 근거는 다음과 같다: 이라크 민병대의 위험성이 과장되었을 가능성, 이라크가 주권국가로서 미국-이란과 동맹을 통한 세력균형을 추구한다는 점에 대한 간과의 위험성, 이라크 민병대들이 이란의 대리인 역할보다 자신의 이득을 위해 행동할 가능성을 간과한 점 등이다.
Abstract
PMF, an coalition of Iraq's major militias was formed under the Iraq's security system with legitimacy to protect the country and the lives of the people on behalf of Iraqi Security forces that already had been collapsed when ISIS occupied Mosul in 2014. Major militias which participated with PMF are mainly Shi'ite Islamist groups such as Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asa'ib Ahl al Haq, Badr organization as the most powerful Iranian linked militias, and al Sistani group, so called Shrine Mobilization. In this context, US regarded PMF as Iran's proxies which would harmed to US and regional security. Iraq seldom stabilized since the 2003 Iraq War, and this vulnerability provided an environment in which external forces could easily intervene in it. Therefore, it has been referred Iraq has aspect to be battlefield of proxy warfare. Nevertheless, this paper points out that it should be cautious because there is a limit to explaining Iraq in the framework of a proxy warfare based on the followings. 1. The possibility that the threaten of Iraqi militia was exaggerated, 2. Overlooking that Iraq as a sovereign state pursues a power balance through an alliance with the United States and Iran, 3. and also the possibility of Iraqi militias follow their own interests rather than acting as Iranian proxies.
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