역내외 밸류체인과 부가가치 교역구조 분석을 통한 Asia Decoupling 가설 검증
A Study on Asia Decoupling through the Analysis of Global Value Chain and Trade in Value Added
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본 연구는 동아시아의 외부 선진 경제권과의 디커플링 가설을 최신 부가가치 교역통계를 활용하여 지역과 국가간 교역패턴 변화를 중심으로 검증하였다. 분석방법으로 부품이나 중간재 교역비중 등을 통한 간접 측정방법이 아닌 실제 부가가치의 역내외 배분 정도를 직접 측정할 수 있는 부가가치 창출능력 지표를 활용했다. 분석 결과, 첫째, 2000년대 중반까지 동아시아 성장엔진으로 작용했던 최종수요와 수출의 역내 부가가치 창출능력이 국제금융위기이후 급격히 감소하여 정체상태에 머물고 있는 현상이 확인되었다. 둘째, 지역내 국가간 부가가치 배분 패턴의 변화에서 GVC 발전을 통해 미래 성장동력 배양을 기대할 수 있는 후발 개도국의 기부능력이나 수혜능력에 의미 있는 변화가 발견되지 않았다. 마지막으로 동아시아 중심국으로 기능하고 있는 중국의 역내 부가가치 기부능력이 2000년대중반 이후 현저히 감소한 반면 수혜능력은 크게 늘어나면서 경쟁관계에 있는 역내 선진 경제국의 부가가치 수혜능력이 상대적으로 줄어드는 등 중국의 역내 부가가치 창출능력이 제한적임을 발견하였다.
Abstract
This study examines the ‘Asia Decoupling’ hypothesis, focusing on changes in trade patterns between regions and countries, based on the latest value added trade statistics. As an analytical tool, indicators that can directly measure the degree of distribution of actual value added were used. Main findings are: Firstly, creating potential at regional level which used to be the growth engine of East Asia until the mid-2000s declined sharply after the global financial crisis. Secondly, in the development pattern of the value added distribution network, no positive change has been detected in the give-out or gain capacity of emerging countries that can generate future growth in East Asia through GVC development. Lastly, China’s value added contributing capacity, as different from the hub countries in other regions such as US and Germany, has declined significantly since the mid 2000s, while its capability to benefit greatly increased, and the gain potential of advanced group countries in competition with China is decreasing. We suggest the establishment of intra-regional economic cooperation mechanism including all countries in East Asia for expanding the value creating capacity in the region.
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