CalTOX 모델을 이용한 벤젠 종합위해성평가의 불확실성 분석과 민감도 분석
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of Human Aggregate Risk Assessment of Benzene using the CalTOX Model
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Objectives: The purpose of this study was to perform an aggregate human risk assessment for benzene in an industrial complex using the CalTOX model and to improve the reliability and predictability of the model by analyzing the uncertainty and sensitivity of the predicted assessment results. Methods: The CalTOXTM 4.0 beta model was used to evaluate a selected region, and @Risk 7.6 software was used to analyze uncertainty and sensitivity. Results: As a result of performing the aggregate risk assessment on the assumption that 6.45E+04 g/d of benzene would be emitted into the atmosphere over two decades, 3% of the daily source term to air remained in the selected region, and 97% (6.26E+04 g/d) moved out of the region. As for exposure by breathing, the predicted LADDinhalation was 2.14E-04 mg/kg-d, and that was assessed as making a 99.99% contribution to the LADDtotal. Regarding human Riskcancer assessment, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, ‘source term to air’ was identified as the most influential variable, followed by ‘exposure time, active indoors (h/day)’, and ‘exposure duration (years)’. Conclusions: As for the results of the human cancer risk assessment for the selected region, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile, corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, ‘source term to air’ was found to be most influential.
Abstract
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to perform an aggregate human risk assessment for benzene in an industrial complex using the CalTOX model and to improve the reliability and predictability of the model by analyzing the uncertainty and sensitivity of the predicted assessment results. Methods: The CalTOXTM 4.0 beta model was used to evaluate a selected region, and @Risk 7.6 software was used to analyze uncertainty and sensitivity. Results: As a result of performing the aggregate risk assessment on the assumption that 6.45E+04 g/d of benzene would be emitted into the atmosphere over two decades, 3% of the daily source term to air remained in the selected region, and 97% (6.26E+04 g/d) moved out of the region. As for exposure by breathing, the predicted LADDinhalation was 2.14E-04 mg/kg-d, and that was assessed as making a 99.99% contribution to the LADDtotal. Regarding human Riskcancer assessment, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, ‘source term to air’ was identified as the most influential variable, followed by ‘exposure time, active indoors (h/day)’, and ‘exposure duration (years)’. Conclusions: As for the results of the human cancer risk assessment for the selected region, the predicted human cancer risk was 5.19E-06 (95% CI; 4.07E-06-6.81E-06) (in the 95th percentile, corresponding to the highest exposure level, a confidence interval of 90%). As a result of analyzing sensitivity, ‘source term to air’ was found to be most influential.
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