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Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 통한 부분 인구집단별 벤젠 및 PM10의 노출 및 위해성 평가

Exposure and Risk Assessment of Benzene and PM10 for Sub-populations using Monte-Carlo Simulations

허정|최영태|박윤경|류현수|조만수|양소영|김은채|양원호|박진현
한국환경보건학회 (Korean Society of Environmental Health)|2019.06|한국환경보건학회지 (JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCES)|제45권 제3호|pp. 247-257|DOI 10.5668/JEHS.2019.45.3.247

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키워드

meta-analysisrisk assessmentexposure assessmentHazardous air pollutantMonte-Carlo analysis

초록

Objectives: The Korea Ministry of Environment regulates concentrations of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) through Atmosphere Environmental Standards to protect public health from HAPs. However, simply determining the exceedance of HAP concentrations has several limitations and more comprehensive assessment is required. In addition, integrated risk assessment is needed considering exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoor as well as indoor environments. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk by sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk for Koreans. Methods: In this study, we calculated time-weighted average exposure concentrations for benzene and PM 10 among preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly using residential time and concentrations for indoor (house, school or workplace, other), outdoor, and transport by the meta-analysis method. The risk assessments were conducted by excess cancer risk and disease death risk using 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in their house, workplace, or school, respectively. The more than 99% excess cancer risk for benzene exceed 1.0E-06 in all sub-populations and lifetime. The acute disease death risk for PM 10 for housewifes and workers for lifetime were 3.35E-04 and 3.18E-04, and chronic disease death risks were 2.84E-03 and 2.70E03, respectively. Conclusions: The risk of benzene and PM 10 by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewifes and workers were assessed. Benzene showed risky results for this study. All disease death risks of PM 10 were higher than 1.0E-04 and showed different risks by sub-population. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment to benzene and PM 10.

Abstract

Objectives: The Korea Ministry of Environment regulates concentrations of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) through Atmosphere Environmental Standards to protect public health from HAPs. However, simply determining the exceedance of HAP concentrations has several limitations and more comprehensive assessment is required. In addition, integrated risk assessment is needed considering exposure in all microenvironments, including outdoor as well as indoor environments. The purpose of this study was to assess the differences in risk by sub-population groups according to time-activity patterns and reported concentrations, as well as the lifetime risk for Koreans. Methods: In this study, we calculated time-weighted average exposure concentrations for benzene and PM 10 among preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly using residential time and concentrations for indoor (house, school or workplace, other), outdoor, and transport by the meta-analysis method. The risk assessments were conducted by excess cancer risk and disease death risk using 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations for probabilistic analysis. Results: Preschool-age children, students, housewifes, workers, and the elderly spent 91.9, 86.0, 79.8, 82.2, and 77.3% of their day in their house, workplace, or school, respectively. The more than 99% excess cancer risk for benzene exceed 1.0E-06 in all sub-populations and lifetime. The acute disease death risk for PM 10 for housewifes and workers for lifetime were 3.35E-04 and 3.18E-04, and chronic disease death risks were 2.84E-03 and 2.70E03, respectively. Conclusions: The risk of benzene and PM 10 by sub-population group and for the lifetime of housewifes and workers were assessed. Benzene showed risky results for this study. All disease death risks of PM 10 were higher than 1.0E-04 and showed different risks by sub-population. This study can be used as a basis for lifetime exposure and risk assessment to benzene and PM 10.

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