상호저축은행과 예금자에 의한 시장규율
Market Discipline by Depositors： the Case of Mutual Savings Banks in Korea
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초록
본 연구는 2003년 상반기부터 2007년 하반기까지의 반기자료를 이용하여 상호저축은행에 시장규율이 존재하는지에 대해 실증 분석하였다. 상호저축은행 통일경영공시의무 항목인 BIS자기자본비율과 자산건전성비율에 초점을 두고 분석한 결과 상기 지표는 예금증가율과 매우 유의한 관계를 가지는 것으로 나타나 표본기간 중 저축은행산업에 시장규율이 존재한다는 결론에 도달하였다. 아울러 이러한 시장규율에 대해 저축은행은 능동적으로 반응하는 것으로 분석되었다. BIS자기자본비율은 모든 모형에서 고정이하여신비율보다 큰 계수를 보여 예금자는 고정이하여신비율보다는 BIS자기자본비율에 더 민감한 것으로 나타났다. 수도권과 비수도권 간에 시장규율의 정도에는 별 차이가 없었으며, 시간이 흐를수록 시장규율의 정도는 강해지는 것으로 조사되었다. 아울러 영업정지가 발생할 경우 BIS자기자본비율에 대한 민감도는 변하지 않는 반면 고정이하여신비율에 대한 예금자의 민감도는 매우 강해지는 것으로 분석되었다. 향후 시장규율의 지속적인 작동 및 향상을 위해서는 감독당국이 저축은행의 성실공시를 유도하는 각종 상벌제도를 고안함과 동시에, BIS자기자본비율 외에 예금자의 인식도가 높아지고 있는 것으로 분석된 고정이하여신비율에 대해서도 예금자의 주의 환기가 필요하다고 할 것이다.
Abstract
This paper examines the disciplinary effect of deposits using the semiannual accounting data of mutual savings banks(henceforth ‘MSBs’) in Korea for the period of 2003 through 2007. I find overall strong evidence in favor of the existence of market discipline in the industry. MSBs with higher BIS ratio and lower NPL ratio turn out to have higher increase rate of deposits than MSBs with lower such ratios. The coefficient of NPL ratio becomes greater with time, suggesting that the effect is cumulative. It turns out that depositors respond more sensitively to NPL ratio than BIS ratio in a period of MSB failure. On the other hand, MSBs turn out to act very positively responding to the depositors’ discipline. They increase BIS ratio or decrease NPL ratio following the previous decrease in deposits. Government authorities need to make more efforts to develop a suitable incentive system (e.g. penalties on a false disclosure) to improve the efficiency of disclosure by MSBs. Moreover, they need to acknowledge the importance of NPL ratio as a market disciplinary tool which has been becoming more important, especially in times of MSB failure.
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