김정은 시대 정치사회 변화와 북한주민 의식 - 탈북민 의식조사를 중심으로

Abstract

The discussion of stability and possibility of change of the North Korean system still focuses on its leadership, power structure, and elite relationships. However, even if the North Korean regime collapses as a result of conflict and split among the elites, if the elite that takes over wishes to maintain the existing system, then the change of regime may not necessarily lead to a change of system or a change of North Korean society. Therefore, it is necessary that we break away from referring solely to political problems to make sense of North Korea and that we approach North Korea from diverse perspectives. With an awareness of such problem, we will focus on the change of North Korean society, which has been caused primarily by its marketization since the 1990s. This study aims to examine the course of thought of the North Korean people who have experienced two decades of continuous change and are living under the Kim Jong Un regime. With the basis of North Korean people’s expectation of change of the North Korean system and their perception of its regime, we will look into the development of deterioration of North Korean political society and the stability and the possibility of change of the Kim Jong Un regime. The North Korean people’s expectation of change of regime and their political consciousness of the Kim Jong Un regime is as follows. Discontent with the North Korean system, expectation of reform and opening up, and the influx of outside information and culture all consistently maintain a considerably high level, leading up to an increased instability of the system. However, on the other hand, market activity has decreased, standard of living has improved, and the party officers’ loyalty and the people’s support have been increasing, even if only by a small margin. This shows how Kim Jong Un regime’s social control and its policy to improve people’s living have been effective. Also, even though the majority of people perceive the Kim Jong Un regime in a negative light, over 30% are indifferent towards it. This 30% say that they are indifferent towards the Kim Jong Un regime’s activities beyond factors that affect their daily livelihood and economic activities. Whether it is the North Korean people’s trust or mistrust of the Kim Jong Un regime that will grow into majority opinion depends primarily on the stance of the currently indifferent 30%. Factors of instability and stability are both coexisting in the Kim Jong Un regime. To lessen the North Korean people’s expectation of regime change and to increase the support of the Kim Jong Un regime, the regime needs to constantly fulfill the North Korean people’s desire for better quality of life. The key here is how long this increase in standard of living can last. To improve its people’s livelihood, the Kim Jong Un regime needs to promote marketization and accelerate reform and opening up, but such measures may increase the regime’s instability at the same time, making the regime face a difficult task.