김정은 집권기 북한의 대외정책과경제정책의 상관관계

Abstract

It is difficult to say that the Kim Jong-un regime’s “our style economic management method” was influenced by changes in the external environment, and in that it is a succession and evolution of the 7.1 measures in 2002, it is not a new transition but a continuation of the past. The period when our style of economic management appeared can be evaluated as the period of restoring order in economic policy at the domestic level.During the Kim Jong-un era, a more active deregulation policy was introduced to expand private consumer goods production while maintaining the parallel line. Autonomy and management rights in consumer goods production were guaranteed, the distribution system was reformed by legalizing the consumer goods market, and the wall between state run stores and the consumer goods market was broken down.The negotiation phase failed due to the collapse of the Hanoi summit in February 2019, and the intention contained in the general economic construction line presented at the beginning of the negotiation phase was not realized. Investment priorities have not changed much, sanctions have not been eased, and North Korea-China economic relations have not changed much from the 2017 comprehensive sanctions situation. In that respect, despite the official discourse that the 2018 intensive economic construction route is a “new route,” nothing has actually changed.In the post-COVID-19 era, North Korea’s domestic economic policy is likely to continue the characteristics of Kim Jong-un’s reign. It is likely to maintain decentralization in the consumer goods and agriculture sectors while strengthening planning capacity, and to prioritize investment in key industrial sectors and marketization in the consumer goods sector. Foreign policy and economic policy can have different correlations depending on the level of improvement in the external environment. If the stalemate in the situation on the Korean Peninsula continues, it will be difficult for North Korea to pursue openness, and if that happens, North Korea’s economic policy is likely to remain import substitution instead of export oriented. However, there is a possibility that a limited opening policy to the northern region, including tourism opening, will be pursued according to the changed northern triangular cooperation.