한국형 항공모함 도입에 따른 경제적 파급효과 전망

Abstract

The Korean light carrier aquisition project, which was determined to be essential for national security, is strongly opposed due to concerns about it becoming expensive targets and its huge costs. Both are cost-related. However, the expected industrial ripple effects from the aquisition can dispel concerns about these costs to some extent. The ripple effects mainly affect the aviation and shipbuilding industries. Of course, the aquisition of the carrier and its operation cost are an economic burden, but it is not a money that simply disappears. The cases of the United Kingdom and the United States, which are advanced countries in carrier operation, show what kind of effect it will have. The Scottish case in England shows how the acquisition of carriers can contribute to the overall economy of the community, while the San Diego case in the US shows the impact of the presence of carriers. In order to predict the industrial ripple effect, it is necessary to select a valid forecasting method after investigating the target industries and various methods for which the ripple effect is predicted. Although the content of this paper is not the result of performing analysis in earnest, it introduces which methods can be selected. The ripple effect is the result of technology development that occurs during the light carrier acquisition, and can be divided into the direct budget effect and the technology ripple effect, and the results are expressed as output and impact. Although this paper does not apply these methods, as a rough estimate, the cost is estimated by referring to various cases, and the direction of the approximate effect can be suggested. In conclusion, it will be possible to foresee the size of the economic ripple effect from the acquisition of light carriers and able to dispel concerns about the cost.