중국몽(夢) 실현을 위한 중국의 해양 팽창과 반(反) 접근/지역거부(A2/AD) 능력 강화 동향에 관한 소고(小考)
A Study on China’s Recent Directions in Maritime Expansion and Military Power Construction to achieve the Chinese Dream
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본 논문은 시진핑 주석이 선언한 중국몽(夢) 실현을 위한 중국의 해양 팽창 현황을 분석한 후 세계 해양 질서와 한반도 안보에 주는 전략 함의를 다음과 같이 도출하였다. 먼저 세계 해양 질서에는 주는 전략적 함의는, 첫째, 중국의 인도․태평양 해역으로의 적극적 해양 팽창으로 역내 새로운 해양 질서 형성 가능성이 커지고 있다. 둘째, 중국의 남중국해 등에 해군력 투사를 확대하면서 인도․태평양 해역까지 중국 위협론이 커지고 있다. 마지막으로, 중국의 해양 팽창정책에 따른 미․중의 전략경쟁이 아프리카까지 확대 중이다. 중국은 아라비아해에 기지 건설 후, 적도 기니에 해군기지 확보를 추진하면서 미·중 간 우발적 충돌 가능성이 커지고 있다. 또한, 한반도 안보에 주는 전략적 함의는, 첫째, 중국은 해양 팽창정책과 함께 서해와 이어도가 포함되는 동중국해의 내해화를 지속할 것이다. 둘째, 중국은 강화된 해양 A2/AD 전력을 기반으로 유사시 서해를 통해 군사적으로 개입할 가능성이 커지고 있다. 따라서, 한국은 한반도 유사시 중국이 서해를 이용하여 중국이 한반도에 군사적으로 개입하지 못하도록 서북 5개 도서를 전략 기지화하는 노력을 지속해야 한다.
Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the current status of China’s maritime expansion to achieve the Chinese dream declared by President Xi Jinping and to derive strategic implications for the global maritime security order and the security of the Korean Peninsula. This paper reached the following conclusions through the research. First, the possibility of forming a new maritime security order in the region is increasing due to China’s active maritime expansion into the Indo-Pacific Oceans. In particular, there are concerns that China’s maritime expansion strategy, such as the securing overseas military bases in the world, will change the shape of a new maritime security order. Second, as China expands its naval power projection in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, the theory of China’s threat to the Indo-Pacific Oceans is growing. After deploying warships to the Gulf of Aden in 2008 for anti-piracy operations, Beijing has recently deployed submarines, making its maritime expansion blatant. Lastly, strategic competition between the US and China is expanding to Africa due to China’s maritime expansion strategy. As China builds a base in Djibouti and pursues securing another naval base in Equatorial Guinea, the possibility of an accidental conflict between the two great powers is increasing. The implications of China’s maritime expansion for the security of the Korean Peninsula are as follows. First, China will continue to inland the East China Sea, including the West Sea and Ieo Island, along with its maritime expansion strategy. The waters around the Korean Peninsula could become a major battlefield for the confrontation between the U.S. and China, and Beijing could cooperate with North Korea and Russia to not only neutralize the ROK-U.S. alliance but also attempt to take control of the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula. Second, there is a growing possibility that China will intervene militarily through the West Sea in case of emergency on the Korean Peninsula based on its strengthened maritime A2/AD capabilities. In the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, if China’s maritime A2/AD strategy is linked to North Korea’s maritime A2/AD capabilities, there is a high possibility that Beijing will use the West Sea as a conduit to easily intervene in the Korean Peninsula after neutralizing it. On the balance, it is necessary to establish the five Northwest islands as strategic bases to prevent China and North Korea from using the West Sea to intervene militarily on the Korean Peninsula in an emergency. To establish the five northwest islands as strategic bases, it is necessary to strengthen long-range surface-to-air, surface-to-surface, and surface-to-ship missiles and C4ISR capabilities on the Baengnyeong Island.
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