김정은 정권의 체제개혁 가능성과 평화통일의 전망

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to assess the possibility of system reform under Kim Jong-un’s rule in North Korea and to foresee peaceful unification of the two Koreas. For the next 5 to 10 years, it is less likely that Kim Jong-un regime enters into a process of “fundamental change” in terms of system reform. Firstly, an absolute dictatorship has been survived for a long-term, and the Kim Il-sung’s family and a few power elite-dominated regime has been preserved. It is very difficult to form a group that could seek system reform. Second, as a result of the highly symbolic manipulation and thought control to ensure the maintenance and validity of regime, social and cultural uniformity and rigidity is strongly internalized. Thirdly, the violent suppression mechanism for regime maintenance is still influential. Forth, North Korea is lacking an critical factor that can trigger the change, because there is no civil society. Fifth, the siege-consciousness due to the “imperialist” forces is operating. Sixth, there is an obvious target of the unification and there are also neighboring countries interested in changes in the status quo of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has seemingly shouting the unification but is actually aiming coexistence to defend its system. Currently, prospect for a peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula is not so bright. Firstly, viewpoint and position on the unification is too different between North and South Korea. There is virtually no possibility of peaceful reunification, without the premise of one’s position changes or regime transition. Secondly, the level of inter-Korean relations is too low to prospect and discuss the possibility of peaceful unification.Thirdly, distrust between the North and South is deeply rooted. Unless the framework of trust is built, it is hard to talk about the possibility of peaceful unification. Forth, conditions for peaceful reunification is not well-furnished at the domestic political level. Moreover, South Korea lacks political leadership of the integration, whereas North Korea lacks leadership for system reform. Lastly, the outlook for peaceful reunification is bleak, in a sense that North Korea is unlikely to take the reform path towards a ‘fundamental change’ for a period of time.