EU 난민의 장단기 경제 효과 -경제성장, 노동시장, 재정수지를 중심으로-
The Long and Short-term Economic Effects of EU Refugees, with Reference to Economic Growth, the Labor Market, and Fiscal Perspectives
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This study focuses on the economic aspects of the surge in asylum seekers in the European Union (EU), where the number of asylum applications in 2015 surpassed that in any of the past 30 years. A better understanding of the economic aspects of this increase would help inform the political debate. In analyzing the economic impact of the inflow, this study draws from the experiences of previous economic migrants and refugees. In the short run, the likely macroeconomic effect from the refugee surge is a modest increase in GDP growth, resulting from the fiscal expansion associated with support to the asylum seekers as well as the expansion in labor supply as the refugees begin to enter the labor force. The impact of the refugees on medium and long-run growth depends on how they are integrated into the labor market. International experience with economic immigrants suggests that migrants have lower employment rates and wages than natives, although these gaps are gradually diminishing over time. Policies can help open up these refugees’ paths to the labor market, including: (1) the minimization of restrictions on working during the asylum application phase; (2) active labor market policies (ALMPs) specifically targeted to refugees; (3) wage subsidies to private employers who employ immigrants; and (4) temporary exceptions to minimum or entry level wages. Rapid labor market integration is also important to reduce the net fiscal cost associated with the current inflow of asylum seekers. Indeed, the sooner these refugees find employment, the more they will help public finances by paying income tax and contributing to social security.
Abstract
This study focuses on the economic aspects of the surge in asylum seekers in the European Union (EU), where the number of asylum applications in 2015 surpassed that in any of the past 30 years. A better understanding of the economic aspects of this increase would help inform the political debate. In analyzing the economic impact of the inflow, this study draws from the experiences of previous economic migrants and refugees. In the short run, the likely macroeconomic effect from the refugee surge is a modest increase in GDP growth, resulting from the fiscal expansion associated with support to the asylum seekers as well as the expansion in labor supply as the refugees begin to enter the labor force. The impact of the refugees on medium and long-run growth depends on how they are integrated into the labor market. International experience with economic immigrants suggests that migrants have lower employment rates and wages than natives, although these gaps are gradually diminishing over time. Policies can help open up these refugees’ paths to the labor market, including: (1) the minimization of restrictions on working during the asylum application phase; (2) active labor market policies (ALMPs) specifically targeted to refugees; (3) wage subsidies to private employers who employ immigrants; and (4) temporary exceptions to minimum or entry level wages. Rapid labor market integration is also important to reduce the net fiscal cost associated with the current inflow of asylum seekers. Indeed, the sooner these refugees find employment, the more they will help public finances by paying income tax and contributing to social security.
참고문헌 (43)
- 김철민, "EU 난민 위기에 대한 중동부유럽의 관점과 전략", EU연구, (43), pp.27~61 (2016), EU연구소[DOI]
- 박선희, "프랑스의 난민정책: EU 공동난민정책의 영향을 중심으로", EU연구, (42), pp.27~63 (2016), EU연구소
- 안병억, "유럽의 난민 위기와 공동이민망명정책 - 초국가주의의 한계와 전망 -", 독일연구 - 역사·사회·문화, (31), pp.1~33 (2016), 한국독일사학회[DOI]
- 오세경, "EU의 난민정책 현황과 향후 전망", KIEP 오늘의 세계경제, 15(36), pp.1~14 (2015)
- 이승현, "유럽의 시리아 난민유입과 독일의 노동정책", 국제노동브리프, 3, pp.66~81 (2016)
- 이용일, "독일사회에서의 난민 논쟁 (1980-1993)", 독일연구 - 역사·사회·문화, (31), pp.35~74 (2016), 한국독일사학회[DOI]
- The Refugee Surge in Europe: Economic Challenges, "Aiyar, Shekhar", International Monetary Fund, ~, pp.Staff Discussion Note 16 (2016), 02
- Integration of Immigrants on the Swedish Labour Market: Recent Trends and Explanations, "Aldén, Lina", Centre for Labour Market and Discrimination Study, Linnaeus University, ~ (2014)
- Aleksynska, Mariya, "Occupation-Education Mismatch of Migrant Workers in Europe : Context and Policies", Economics of Education Review, 36, pp.229~244 (2013)
- Angrist, Joshua, "Protective or Counter-Productive? Labour Market Institutions and the Effect of Immigration on EU Natives", Economic Journal, 113, pp.302~331 (2003)
- Åslund, Olof, "Do When and Where Matter? Initial Labor Market Conditions and Immigrant Earnings", Economic Journal, 117, pp.422~448 (2007)
- The Labour Market Effect of Opening the Border: New Evidence from Switzerland, "Beerli, Andreas", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 21319 (2015)
- Bisin, Alberto, "Ethnic Identity and Labour Market Outcomes of Immigrants in Europe", Economic Policy, 26(65), pp.57~92 (2011)
- Labor Market Policies and IMF Advice in Advanced Economies during the Great Recession, "Blanchard, Olivier", International Monetary Fund, ~, pp.Staff Discussion Note 13 (2013), 02
- Bonin, Holger, "Der Beitrag von Ausländern und Künftiger Zuwanderung zum Deutschen Staatshaushalt" (2014), Bertelsmann Stiftung
- Borjas, George J, "The Economic Benefits from Immigration", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(2), pp.3~22 (1995)
- Imperfect Substitution between Immigrants and Natives: A Reappraisal, "Borjas, George J.", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 13877 (2008)
- Butschek, Sebastian, "What Active Labour Market Programmes Work for Immigrants in Europe? A Meta-Analysis of the Evaluation Literature", IZA Journal of Migration, 3(48) (2014)
- Cattaneo, Cristina, "What Happens to the Careers of European Workers when Immigrants ‘Take Their Jobs?’"", Journal of Human Resources, 50(3), pp.655~693 (2015)
- The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations, "Clements, Benedict", International Monetary Fund, ~, pp.Staff Discussion Note 15 (2015), 21
- Inmigración y Crecimiento Regional en España, "Conde-Ruiz, Ignacio", Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada, ~, pp.Colección Estudios Económicos 09-08 (2008)
- D’Amuri, Francesco, "Immigration, Jobs, and Employment Protection : Evidence from Europe before and during the Great Recession", Journal of the European Economic Association, 12(2), pp.432~464 (2014)
- Impacts of Migration on UK Native Employment: An Analytical Review of the Evidence, "Devlin, Ciaran", Home Office, ~, pp.Occasional Paper 109 (2014)
- Docquier Frédéric, "The Labour Market Effects of Immigration and Emigration in OECD Countries", Economic Journal, 124, pp.1106~1145 (2014)
- Dustmann, Christian, "The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages", Review of Economic Studies, 80(1), pp.145~173 (2013)
- "The Terrible Flight from the Killing" (2015)[URL]
- "The 2015 Ageing Report" (2015)[URL]
- "European Social Survey(ESS)"[URL]
- "Eurostat"[URL]
- Farré, Lidia, "Immigration, Family Responsibility and the Labor Supply of Skilled Native Women", B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 11(1) (2011)
- Hatton, Timothy J., "International Handbook on the Economics of Migration" (2013), Edward Elgar
- Does the Calculation Hold? The Fiscal Balance of Migration to Germany and Denmark, "Hinte, Holger", Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), ~, pp.Policy Paper 87 (2014)
- The Nordic Labor Market and Migration, "Ho, Giang", International Monetary Fund, ~, pp.Working Paper No.15 (2015), 254
- Kerr, Sari P., "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey?", Finnish Economic Papers, 24(1), pp.1~32 (2011)
- Longhi, Simonetta, "A Meta-Analytic Assessment of the Effects of Immigration on Wages", Journal of Economic Surveys, 19, pp.451~477 (2005)
- OECD, "The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in OECD Countries", In International Migration Outlook 2013, ~ (2013)
- The Labour Market Integration of Resettled Refugees, "Ott, Eleanor", United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Policy Development and Evaluation Services, ~, pp.Evaluation Report 2013 (2013), 6
- Ottaviano, Gianmarco, "Rethinking the Effect of Immigration on Wages", Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(1), pp.152~197 (2012)
- Immigrants’ Complementarities and Native Wages: Evidence from California, "Peri, Giovanni", National Bureau of Economic Research, ~, pp.Working Paper 12956 (2007)
- The Impact of Immigrants in Recession and Economic Expansion, "Peri, Giovanni", Migration Policy Institute, ~ (2010)
- "The Effect of Immigrants on U.S. Employment and Productivity" (2010)[URL]
- Rinne, Ulf, "International Handbook on the Economics of Migration" (2013), Edward Elgar
- "UNHCR"[URL]