대북제재가 북한 군사력에 미치는 영향
The Effect of Economic Sanction on North Korea’s Military Capabilities
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In 1993 DPRK(Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) declared withdrawal from the NPT(Non-Proliferation Treaty) and UNSC(United Nations Security Council) adopted resolution No. 825 to call upon DPRK to reconsider its decision and allow weapon inspectors from the IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) into the country. Since then DPRK has been improving its military capacities especially on asymmetric power of nuclear weapon and long range missile, UNSC and multi-country such as United States, Japan, China and Republic of Korea have been imposing economic sanctions on this action but DPRK have been carrying on regardless. It focused its national capacities and resources on military due military-first ideology and Economy-Nuclear Parallel Policy. However DPRK could not exceed its limit on capacities, this resulted in reduction in defense expenditure when DPRK economy is in deep recession. Which means effective economic sanction which would drag economy down to recession, DPRK would not have enough input due lack of its resources. To achieve this aim, China must take an important part because China is the one main trade partner to DPRK. Thus we must persuade China to consider that to sanction DPRK will be in China’s interest in the future.
Abstract
In 1993 DPRK(Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) declared withdrawal from the NPT(Non-Proliferation Treaty) and UNSC(United Nations Security Council) adopted resolution No. 825 to call upon DPRK to reconsider its decision and allow weapon inspectors from the IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) into the country. Since then DPRK has been improving its military capacities especially on asymmetric power of nuclear weapon and long range missile, UNSC and multi-country such as United States, Japan, China and Republic of Korea have been imposing economic sanctions on this action but DPRK have been carrying on regardless. It focused its national capacities and resources on military due military-first ideology and Economy-Nuclear Parallel Policy. However DPRK could not exceed its limit on capacities, this resulted in reduction in defense expenditure when DPRK economy is in deep recession. Which means effective economic sanction which would drag economy down to recession, DPRK would not have enough input due lack of its resources. To achieve this aim, China must take an important part because China is the one main trade partner to DPRK. Thus we must persuade China to consider that to sanction DPRK will be in China’s interest in the future.
참고문헌 (48)
- 김동엽, "경제·핵무력 병진노선과 북한의 군사 분야 변화", 현대북한연구, 18(2), pp.77~120 (2015), 심연북한연구소[DOI]
- 김병로, "탈북자 면접조사를 통해 본 북한사회의 변화 - 2008~2011", 현대북한연구, 15(1), pp.39~84 (2012), 심연북한연구소
- 김유리, "북·중 경제 관계와 대북제재: 관리를 위한 제재의 딜레마", 국가전략, 22(3), pp.61~88 (2016), 세종연구소
- 남성욱, "제4차 핵실험 이후 남북관계 전망과 대응", 시선집중GSnJ, 214(214), pp.1~16 (2016)
- 백승주, "선군정치하 북한군 역할과 위상 변화", 국방정책연구, 54, pp.129~151 (2001)
- 북한의 군사정책 및 군사전략변화와 서해긴장사태 전망, "서유석", 통일부, 1~120 (2010)
- 서주석, "북한 핵 딜레마와 제네바기본합의", 전남대학교 세계한상문화연구단 국내학술회의, pp.559~576 (2002)
- 성채기, "북한의 경제력과 군사경제 성격", 군사논단, 39, pp.115~135 (2004)
- 성채기, "국제적 대북제재의 현황과 군사･경제적 영향분석 및 전망", 국방정책연구, 25(4), pp.9~51 (2010), 한국국방연구원
- 북(北) 비대칭전력집중투자...남침 계획과도 연계, "통일한국", 2015, 30~31
- 유재승, "유엔 대북제재 위원회-국가별 이행보고 현황", KDI 북한경제리뷰, (2), pp.91~103 (2013)
- 이달희, "북한경제의 전개과정", pp.173~220 (1990)
- 이석, "효율적 대북제재", 통일나침반, (1), pp.1~20 (2016)
- 이성훈, "한국 군비지출의 GDP에 대한 기회비용과 구축효과", 경영경제연구, 35(1), pp.85~96 (2012)
- 이영훈, "김정은의 경제-핵무력 병진노선의 특징과 지속 가능성", 북한연구학회보, 19(1), pp.1~26 (2015), 북한연구학회
- 이정우, "북한의 국력과 군사력에 대한 평가", 현대북한연구, 15(3), pp.100~145 (2012), 심연북한연구소
- 이정우, "북한의 재래식 군사력 평가와 대남 군사위협의 변화", 현대북한연구, 17(2), pp.296~331 (2014), 심연북한연구소
- 이필중, "한국 군사력 건설 사업의 경제적 효과 분석: 기동분야 사업을 중심으로", 국제정치논총, 51(1), pp.99~126 (2011), 한국국제정치학회
- 통일경제의 현제와 미래, "이해정", 현대경제연구원, 1~251 (2016)
- 임을출, "개성공단 폐쇄 이후 남북관계 전망과 대응", 시선집중GSnJ, 216(216), pp.1~12 (2016)
- 북한의 군수산업 정책이 경제에 미치는 효과 분석, "임강택", 통일연구원, 1~144 (2000)
- 정성윤, "대북제재의 전략적 함의와 실효성 제고 방향", 북한연구학회춘계학술발표논문집, pp.141~154 (2016)
- 조남훈, "미국의 대북제재 강화와 우리의 대응", KDI 북한경제리뷰, (5), pp.15~28 (2015)
- 조남훈, "북한 군사경제의 현황", KDI 북한경제리뷰, (12), pp.19~24 (2016)
- 조동호, "경제·핵 병진노선의 의미와 김정은 시대의 경제정책 전망", 국가전략, 19(4), pp.33~56 (2013), 세종연구소
- 주재우, "중국의 대북제재 참여 배경과 원인의 담론", 국제학논총, 24, pp.97~119 (2016)
- A. Kha lid, Masoud, "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from System GMM Estimates", Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 6(1), pp.31~39 (2015)
- Defense Spending and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, "Biswa s, Basudeb", Economic Research Institute, ~ (1992)
- Blanchard, Jean-Marc F, "Power and the Purse: Economic Statecraft, Interdependence, and National Security" (2000), Frank Cass Publishers
- 주재우, "China’s Frustration over North Korea: Editorial Analysis, Dec. 2012-April 2013", The Korean Journal of Security Affairs, 18(1), pp.4~21 (2013), 국가안전보장문제연구소
- Frederiksen, P. C., "Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Developing Countries", Armed Forces and Society, 9(4), pp.633~645 (1983)
- Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: History and Current Policy" (2007), Peterson Institute for International Economics
- 정형곤, "An Analysis of Effectiveness of International Economic Sanctions against North Korea", 동북아경제연구, 23(2), pp.205~236 (2011), 한국동북아경제학회
- Kornai, Janos, "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism" (1992), Princeton University Press
- "동아일 보" (2016)[URL]
- "아시아 투데이" (2017)[URL]
- "연합뉴스" (2011)[URL]
- "연합뉴스" (2016)[URL]
- "연합뉴스" (2016)[URL]
- "연합뉴스" (2017)[URL]
- "자유아시아방송" (2003)[URL]
- "조선신보 (2016", 05, pp.2016, ~
- "DailyN K" (2016)[URL]
- "NK Chosun" (2002)[URL]
- "Reuters" (2016)[URL]
- "Voice Of America" (2008)[URL]
- "Voice Of America" (2013)[URL]
- "Voice Of America" (2016)[URL]