中美在南中國海的戰略競爭: 相互認知和戰略意圖
The U.S.-China Strategic Competition in the South China Sea: Mutual Perception and Strategic Intentions
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本文旨在說明中美兩國就南中國海開展的戰略競爭，主張兩國圍繞區域霸權産生的矛盾源 於對南中國海的相互認識、戰略意圖。尤其是在習近平執政時期中國提出中國夢，大 力推進走向海洋強國的發展戰略，試圖擴大它在海洋的影響力。對此，自二戰結束以來一 直獨占亞洲-太平洋地區的美國從奧巴馬時期開始逐漸將中國視爲要打破現狀的國家， 認爲中國是對自己霸權的唯一挑戰者。從而，中國也認爲美國是對自身發展的最大障礙。 從地緣政治的角度來看，中美在南中國海出現的矛盾是以擴大海洋影響力爲目的的中國與 傳統上掌握亞洲-太平洋的美國之間展開戰略競爭的結果。兩大強國之間的霸權戰爭很 可能帶來嚴重的後果。因此，中美兩國雖然都在積極推進增強本國力量、遏制對方的戰 略，但實際上都不希望發生戰爭。盡管如此，中美在南中國海的戰略競爭將圍繞更多焦點 展開, 該地區“打破現狀、維持現狀”的對立格局將持續一段時間，地區秩序的不穩定性不 會輕易消除。
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to explain the strategic competition between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea, and argues that the conflicting positions on maritime dominance between the two countries stem from perceptions, strategic intentions, and purposes of the South China Sea. During Xi Jinping's reign, China is strongly pushing for the China Dream vision and an external expansion strategy toward a maritime power, and recognizes the U.S. to check China's ambitions as a vital threat to China. On the other hand, the U.S., traditionally a leader in the Asia-Pacific region, regards China as a major challenger to U.S. dominance in the region. In terms of geopolitics, the discord between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea can be seen as the result of competitively overlapping hegemonic ambitions of the two countries. China seeks to foster and expand maritime capabilities, and the U.S. seeks to maintain the status quo, preserve its traditional control over the region. And both sides understand each other's intentions and strategies aggressively. But armed conflict doesn't seem to be the real scenario that both China and the U.S. want. Rather than armed conflict, they are expected to actively pursue strategies to strengthen their military power and check their opponents. This uneasy cohabitation between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea will continue for the time being.