부동산가격과 대출금리와의 연관성

Abstract

This thesis is a study on the relationship between real estate prices and loan interest rates. Basic statistical analysis of deposit bank loan interest rates and nationwide apartment prices from September 2009 to May 2022 announced by the Bank of Korea economic statistics system and Kookmin Bank Subsequently, a unit root test was performed to test the stability of the time series data. For empirical analysis, the Granger causality analysis was performed through correlation analysis and VAR model. First, as a result of correlation analysis, the correlation between the balance-based loan interest rate and the new loan amount was the highest at 0.9646. The loan interest rate based on the balance showed a positive correlation with the national apartment price of 0.3177, but it showed a negative (-) with -0.2960 with the nationwide apartment sale price. It showed a relationship of 0.35677, but it was negative (-) 0.2093 with the nationwide apartment sale price. Second, as a result of Granger's causal relationship analysis, the balance-based loan interest rate and apartment sale price showed mutual influence with the statistical F values ​​of 3.23 and 7.96, respectively. On the other hand, as for the apartment jeonse price, the statistic F value showing the effect on the balance-based loan interest rate was 6.27, which was rejected at the significance level, indicating that the apartment jeonse price had an effect on the balance-based loan interest rate. appeared to have no effect on price. It was found that the interest rate on the loan based on the new transaction amount did not affect the apartment sale price and the apartment jeonse price. By rejecting it at the significance level, it was found that the sale price and the jeonse price of an apartment had an effect on the interest rate of the loan based on the new transaction amount. Combining these studies, since the movement of real estate prices directly affects the lending rates of banks, it will be possible to suggest meaningful implications for the government and financial authorities who implement real estate policies and interest rate policies.