한반도 비핵화를 위한 위기관리 및 협상전략에 관한 연구
A Study on Crisis Management and Negotiation Strategies for the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
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초록
본 논문의 목적은 한반도 비핵화를 추진해 나가는 과정에서 한국정부가 어떤 위기관리 및 협상전략을 추구해 나가야 하는지를 고찰하는데 있다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 북한의 김정은 위원장에게 체제보장에 대한 정치적⋅외교적 공약을 제시하는 것이다. 둘째, 북한에 대한 경제측면에서봉쇄적 제재를 비핵화가 완성될 때까지 지속하는 것이다. 셋째, 한미 간의 군사 협력과 안보협력강화를 통한 대북 군사적 압박을 하는 것이다. 넷째, 북한이 핵을 포기하더라도 상호 윈-윈(Win-Win) 할 수 있도록 협력적 협상이 되도록 하는 것이다. 이런 연구결과의 시사점은 북핵 폐기를 위한 남북및 북미 실무회담에서 전략적, 전술적 대응력을 강화하고, 최대의 국익을 보장하기 위한 위기관리및 협상 전략을 마련할 필요가 있다는 것이다. 따라서 한국은 철저히 준비된 위기관리전략과 협상전략으로 북핵 폐기를 완성해야 할 필요가 있을 것이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to examine what types of crisis management and negotiation strategies the Korean government should pursue in the denuclearization process of the Korean peninsula. The findings are as follows. First, it is necessary to make political and diplomatic commitments to the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for the security of his regime. Second, North Korea sanctions should remain in place until complete denuclearization. Third, the US-South Korea military cooperation must be reinforced to put pressure on North Kore. Fourth, a ‘win-win’ cooperative negotiation strategy should be used, even if North Korea abandons its nuclear program. The implications of these findings include that South Korea needs to boost strategic and tactical responsiveness in the debates on the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and prepare for crisis management and negotiation strategies to ensure and maximize national interests.
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