본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

정책변화와 제도적 제약에 관한 탐색적 분석 - 텍스트 분석 방법의 적용 가능성을 중심으로 -

Exploring Policy Changes and Institutional Constraints - Focus on the Applicability of Text Analysis -

이은미|고기동
(사)위기관리이론과실천 (Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis)|2020.10|Crisisonomy|제16권 제10호|pp. 83-98|DOI https://doi.org/10.14251/crisisonomy.2020.16.10.83

0

조회

0

다운로드

1

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

안정성지프분포stabilityduality이중성정책변화policy change텍스트분석text analysisvariability경제정책변화성institutional research제도연구Zipf distribution

초록

본 연구는 많은 변화가 있을 것으로 표현되는 정책이 장기간의 시점에서 보았을 때에는 완만한 변화로 나타나는 현상을 텍스트 분석을 활용하여 신제도주의 시각을 통해 기술하는 데 중점을 둔 것이다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 지난 25년 간 정부가 발표한 경제정책방향을 대상으로 실증하였다. 분석결과, 경제정책방향은 정책문서에 포함된 재량적 희소빈도단어에 의해 일시적⋅국지적 변화가 매번생산되었고, 이를 통해 경제정책방향은 대통령 임기 등 정치적 상황과 정책 환경에 탄력적으로 적응하는 변화성을 나타냈다. 한편 정책문서의 고빈도 단어는 제도적 제약 아래에서 경제정책방향의기본적 궤적과 틀을 형성하고 유지하는 역할을 수행하였고, 그러한 변화는 안정적으로 나타났다. 정책문서가 지니는 변화에 대한 지프분포의 이중적 속성으로 인해 변화성과 안정성이 함께 발현된것이다. 본 연구는 텍스트 분석을 활용하여 제도적 제약과 정책변화를 통합적으로 설명할 수 있는가능성을 탐색적으로 시도하였다는 점에 의의가 있다.

Abstract

This study focuses on describing the phenomena in which policies varying over time appear as gentle changes when viewed from a long-term perspective through a new institutional lens using text analysis. This research analyzes the economic policy direction announced by the South Korean government over the past 25 years. Based on infrequently-used discretionary words in the policy documents, temporary and partial changes were found in economic policy direction every year, which indicated that the economic policy direction in South Korea has been adapted flexibly to political situations and policy environment established by each presidency. On the other hand, high-frequency words in policy documents played a role in forming and maintaining the fundamental trajectory and framework of the economic policy directions under institutional constraints, and such changes were found to be stable. With respect to changes in policy documents, the duality of the Zipf distribution expressed both variability and stability at the same time. The main contribution of this study is to explore the possibility of comprehensively explaining both institutional constraints and policy changes using text analysis.

참고문헌 (83)

  1. Arthur, W. Brian, "Self-reinforcing Mechanisms in Economics" (1988), Taylor&Francis Group
  2. Arthur, W. Brian, "Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy" (1994), University of Michigan Press
  3. Atkinson, Michael M, "Lindblom’s Lament : Incrementalism and the Persistent Pull of the Status Quo", Policy and Society, 30(1), pp.9~18 (2011)
  4. Bailey, John J., "Operationalizing Incrementalism : Measuring the Muddles", Public Administration Review, 35(1), pp.60~66 (1975)
  5. Baumgartner, Frank R., "Agendas and Instability in American Politics" (1993), University of Chicago Press
  6. Birkland, Thomas A, "Focusing Vents, Mobilization, and Agenda Setting", Journal of Public Policy, 18(3), pp.53~74 (1998)
  7. Birkland, Thomas A, "Lessons of Disaster : Policy Change After Catastrophic Events" (2006), Georgetown University Press
  8. Blyth, Mark, "Any More Bright Ideas? The Ideational Turn of Comparative Political Economy", Comparative Politics, 29(2), pp.229~250 (1997)
  9. Blyth, Mark, "Great Transformations : Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century" (2002), Cambridge University Press
  10. Blyth, Mark, "Ideas, Uncertainty, and Evolution" (2011), Oxford University Press
  11. Campbell, John L, "Institutional Analysis and the Role of Ideas in Political Economy", Theory and Society, 27(3), pp.377~409 (1998)
  12. Capoccia, Giovanni, "The Study of Critical Junctures : Theory, Narrative, and Counterfactuals in Historical Institutionalism", World Politics, 59(3), pp.341~369 (2007)
  13. Cohen, Michael D., "A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice", Administrative Science Quarterly, 17(1), pp.1~25 (1972)
  14. David, Paul A, "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY", The American Economic Review, 75(2), pp.332~337 (1985)
  15. Davis, Otto A., "A Theory of the Budgetary Process", American Political Science Review, 60(3), pp.529~547 (1966)
  16. Davis, Otto A., "Towards a Predictive Theory of Government Expenditure : US Domestic Appropriations", British Journal of Political Science, 4(4), pp.419~452 (1974)
  17. Dye, Thomas R, "Top Down Policymaking" (2001), Chatham House Pub
  18. Gabaix, Xavier, "Zipf's Law and the Growth of Cities", American Economic Review, 89(2), pp.129~132 (1999)
  19. Gould, Stephen Jay, "Punctuated Equilibria : an Alternative to Phyletic Gradualism" (1972), Freeman, Cooper and Company
  20. Gould, Stephen Jay, "Punctuated Equilibria : The Tempo and Mode of Evolution Reconsidered", Paleobiology, 3(2), pp.115~151 (1977)
  21. 하연섭, "신제도주의의 이론적 진화와 정책연구", 행정논총, 44(2), pp.217~246 (2006), 한국행정연구소
  22. Hall, Peter A, "Governing the Economy : The Politics of State Intervention in Britain and France" (1986), Oxford University Press
  23. Hall, Peter A., "Structuring Politics: Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis" (1992), Cambridge Universtiy Press
  24. Hall, Peter A, "Policy Paradigms, Social Learning, and the State : the Case of Economic Policymaking in Britain", Comparative Politics, 25(3), pp.275~296 (1993)
  25. Hall, Peter A., "Political Science and the Three New Institutionalisms", Political Studies, 44(5), pp.936~957 (1996)
  26. Huang, Anna., "Similarity Measures for Text Document Clustering", Proceedings of the Sixth New Zealand Computer Science Research Student Conference (NZCSRSC2008) (2008)
  27. Ikenberry, G. John, "Conclusion : An Institutional Approach to American Foreign Economic Policy", International Organization, 42(1), pp.219~243 (1988)
  28. Immergut, Ellen M, "Institutional Constraints on Policy" (2006), Oxford University Press
  29. Immergut, Ellen M., "Historical Institutionalism and West European Politics", West European Politics, 31(1-2), pp.345~369 (2008)
  30. John, Peter, "Policy Punctuations in the UK : Fluctuations and Equilibria in Central Government Expenditure Since 1951", Public Administration, 81(3), pp.411~432 (2003)
  31. Jones, Bryan D., "The Shape of Change: Punctuations and Stability in U. S. Budgeting. 1947-1994", Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association (1994)
  32. Jones, Bryan D., "Policy Punctuations: US Budget Authority. 1947-1995", The Journal of Politics, 60(1), pp.1~33 (1998)
  33. Jordan, Meagan M, "Unctuated Equilibrium : An Agenda-based Theory of Budgeting", pp.202~215 (2002), Quorum Books
  34. Jordan, Meagan M, "Punctuations and Agendas : A New Look at Local Government Budget Expenditures", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 22(3), pp.345~360 (2003)
  35. Kemp, Kathleen A, "Instability in Budgeting for Federal Regulatory Agencies", Social Science Quarterly, 63(4), pp.345~360 (1982)
  36. 김동성, "벡터 공간 모델과 HAL에 기초한 단어 의미 유사성 군집", 인지과학, 23(3), pp.295~322 (2012), 한국인지과학회[DOI]
  37. 김경환, "도시 인구규모 분포와 도시 인구성장 패턴에 관한 분석", 지역연구, 23(1), pp.27~41 (2007), 한국지역학회
  38. Kingdon, John W, "Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies" (1995), Haper Collins
  39. 고기동, "아이디어와 정책선택에 관한 경험적 연구: 경제정책의 변화를 중심으로", 행정논총, 57(3), pp.89~115 (2019), 한국행정연구소[DOI]
  40. Krasner, Stephen D, "Approaches to the State : Alternative Conceptions and Historical Dynamics", Comparative Politics, 16(2), pp.223~246 (1984)
  41. Krasner, Stephen D, "Sovereignty : An Institutional Perspective", Comparative Political Studies, 21(1), pp.66~94 (1988)
  42. 경정익, "빅데이터에 의한 부동산정책 현안진단 및 수요예측 방법론", 부동산경영, (15), pp.7~36 (2017), 한국부동산경영학회
  43. Lindblom, Charles E, "The Science of ‘Muddling Through’", Public Administration Review, 19(2), pp.79~88 (1959)
  44. Lindblom, Charles E, "Contexts for Change and Strategy : A Reply", Public Administration Review, 24(3), pp.157~158 (1964)
  45. Lindblom, Charles E, "Politics and Markets : The World’s Political-economic Systems" (1977), Basic Books
  46. Lindblom, Charles E, "Still Muddling, Not Yet Through", Public Administration Review, 39(6), pp.517~526 (1979)
  47. Mahoney, James, "Path dependence in Historical Sociology", Theory and Society, 29(4), pp.507~548 (2000)
  48. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, "The Fractal Geometry of Nature", pp.173~ (1983), WH freeman
  49. March, James G., "Rediscovering Institutions : The Organizational Basis of Politics" (1989), The Free Press
  50. March, James G., "Institutional Perspectives on Political Institutions", Governance, 9(3), pp.247~264 (1996)
  51. March, James G., "The Logic of Appropriateness" (2004), Oxford University Press
  52. March, James G., "The new Institutionalism : Organizational Factors in Political Life", American Political Science Review, 78(3), pp.734~749 (1984)
  53. May, Peter J, "Policy Learning and Failure", Journal of Public Policy, 12(4), pp.331~354 (1992)
  54. Mehta, Jal, "The Varied Roles in Politics : From Whether to How" (2011), Oxford University Press
  55. Newman, Mark E. J, "Power Laws, Pareto Distributions and Zipf's Law", Contemporary Physics, 46(5), pp.323~351 (2005)
  56. Nitsch, Volker, "Zipf Zipped", Journal of Urban Economics, 57(1), pp.86~100 (2005)
  57. North, Douglass C, "Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance" (1990), Cambridge University Press
  58. North, Douglass C, "Understanding the Process of Institutional Change" (2005), Princeton University Press
  59. Okuyama, Kazumi, "Zipf's Law in Income Distribution of Companies", Physica A : Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 269(1), pp.125~131 (1999)
  60. Ostrom, Charles W, "A Reactive Linkage Model of the US Defense Expenditure Policymaking Process", American Political Science Review, 72(3), pp.941~957 (1978)
  61. Park, Chan Kook, "Prospect of Korean Nuclear Policy Change Through Text Mining", Energy Procedia, 128, pp.72~78 (2017)
  62. Pierson, Paul, "Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics", American Political Science Review, 94(2), pp.251~267 (2000)
  63. Pontusson, Jonas, "From Comparative Public Policy to Political Economy : Putting Political Institutions in their Place and Taking Interests Seriously", Comparative Political Studies, 28(1), pp.117~147 (1995)
  64. Ragin, Charles C, "The Comparative Method : Moving beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Methods" (1987), University of California
  65. Robinson, Scott E, "Punctuated Equilibrium, Bureaucratization, and Budgetary Changes in Schools", Policy Studies Journal, 32(1), pp.25~39 (2004)
  66. Sabatier, Paul A., "Policy Change and Learning : An Advocacy Coalition Approach" (1993), Westview
  67. Salton, Gerard, "Term-weighting Approaches in Automatic Text Retrieval", Information Processing & Management, 24(5), pp.513~523 (1988)
  68. Salton, Gerard, "A Vector Space Model for Automatic Indexing", Communications of the ACM, 18(11), pp.613~620 (1975)
  69. Simon, Herbert, "Administrative Behavior: A Study of Decision-making Processes in Administrative Organizations" (1945), The Free Press
  70. Skocpol, Theda, "The Uses of Comparative History in Macrosocial Inquiry", Comparative Studies in Society and History, 22(2), pp.174~197 (1980)
  71. Skocpol, Theda, "Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences" (2003), Cambridge University Press
  72. Steinbach, Michael, "A Comparison of Document Clustering Techniques", KDD Workshop on Text Mining, pp.400~ (2000)
  73. Steinmo, Sven, "Structuring Politics : Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis" (1992), Cambridge University Press
  74. Streeck, Wolfgang, "Beyond Continuity : Institutional Change in Advanced Political Economies" (2005), Oxford University Press
  75. Thelen, Kathleen, "Structuring Politics: Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis" (1992), Cambridge University Press
  76. Thelen, Kathleen, "Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Politics", Annual Review of Political Science, 2(1), pp.369~404 (1999)
  77. Thelen, Kathleen, "How Institutions Evolve : The Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan" (2004), Cambridge University Press
  78. True, James L, "Avalanches and Incrementalism : Making Policy and Budgets in the United States", The American Review of Public Administration, 30(1), pp.3~18 (2000)
  79. Turney, Peter D., "From Frequency to Meaning : Vector Space Models of Semantics", Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, pp.37141~37188 (2010)
  80. Wildavsky, Aaron B, "The Politics of the Budgetary Process" (1964), Little, Brown and Company
  81. Wildavsky, Aaron, "Comprehensive versus Incremental Budgeting in the Department of Agriculture", Administrative Science Quarterly, 10(3), pp.321~346 (1965)
  82. Wincott, Daniel, "Ideas, Policy Change, and the Welfare State" (2011), Oxford University Press
  83. Zipf, George Kingsley, "Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort" (1949), Hafner Publishing Company

관련 논문AI추천

Identifying Policy Direction Change from Economic Texts Using Words as Data이은미, Loni Hagen(사)위기관리이론과실천 · Journal of Safety and Crisis Management2022 · 제12권 제5호텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 경제정책기록서비스 연구: 경제정책방향을 중심으로김성원, 연지현한국기록관리학회 · 한국기록관리학회지2022 · 제22권 제2호텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 대입정책의 키워드 및 정책이슈 분석이인원, 이제중성균관대학교 국정전문대학원 · 국정관리연구2022 · 제17권 제4호텍스트 분석 방법론을 활용한 국회 정책 의제의 이념성향 분석김정연미래정치연구소 · 미래정치연구2018 · 제8권 제2호정책의 연속과 변동: 전국민 재난지원금 아이디어와 채택요인 분석김성수, 김주상, 이창율한국공공관리학회 · 한국공공관리학보2022 · 제36권 제1호승차공유서비스 규제에 대한 신제도주의적 분석: 경로의존과 아이디어 개념의 적용이창율한국공공관리학회 · 한국공공관리학보2024 · 제38권 제1호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (8건)

한국의 재난관리 조직체계 변화분석윤동근, 최연우, 오윤경pp. 1-19Enhancing Natural Disaster Resilience through NGO Participation in China권설아, Dong Lin, 이재은, Jin Quanpp. 21-36산불안전확보를 위한 안전화 성능평가 기준제시에 관한 연구서경원, 권춘근, 이선주, 홍승태, 김성용, 이예은pp. 37-44소방공무원의 보수공정성이 조직신뢰와 직무만족에 미치는 영향 연구 - 소방령 소방공무원의 성과급적 연봉제를 중심으로 -김창길pp. 45-59벌채 산물 수집이 산불연료에 미치는 영향이예은, 김성용, 이선주, 서경원, 권춘근, 방철안pp. 61-69
원문 보기