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서방제재가 러시아 주요기업의 활동에 미친 영향 분석: 25개 상장기업을 중심으로

Analysis of the Impact of Western Sanctions on the Activities of Major Russian Companies

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주제분류학제간연구

초록

2014년 우크라이나 사태 발발 이후 러시아는 서방으로부터 경제제재를 받기 시작했다. 2022년 러·우 전쟁 발발 이후 서방제재는 개인, 기관, 산업, 무역 등 다양한 부문에서 확대되고 있으며, 장기화될 것으로 전망된다. 제재 효과에 관한 다양한 연구 가운데 특정된 대상에 대한 제재가 의도한 효과를 미치는지를 확인하자는 취지에서 ‘스마트 제재’ 여부를 논의하는 연구도 부상하고 있다. 이러한 배경에서 이 연구는 서방제재가 러시아 기업에 대해 미치는 영향을, 특히 러시아 주식시장에 상장된 기업에 대한 영향을 확인하고자 하였다. 2012~21년간 25개 러시아 주요기업의 패널데이터를 활용하여 서방제재를 포함하여 기업성과에 영향을 미친 요인을 고정효과모형을 통해 분석하였고, 그 결과 서방제재는 러시아 주요기업의 활동에 유의미한 영향을 미치지 못하였고, 거시경제 및 기업 내부요인이 더 결정적인 요인으로 작용한 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구에서는 기업 데이터 접근성 및 발표 시기로 인해 2022년 이후 데이터를 포함하지 못하였으나, 추가적인 연구를 통해 이 부분이 보완될 필요가 있다.

Abstract

After the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Russia has been under economic sanctions from the West. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Western sanctions are expanding in various sectors, including individuals, organizations, industries, and trade, and are to continued in the long-term. Among various studies on the effectiveness of sanctions, research discussing whether sanctions against specific targets have the intended effect is emerging. Against this background, this study seeks to analyze the impact of Western sanctions on Russian companies, especially those listed on the Russian stock market. Using panel data from 25 major Russian companies from 2012 to 2021, the author examined factors that affected corporate performance, including Western sanctions, with a fixed effects model. As a result, Western sanctions did not have a significant impact on the business activities of major Russian companies. It was found that the macroeconomic and internal company factors were more decisive factors. This study was unable to include data after 2022 due to corporate data accessibility and release period, therefore this needs to be complemented through additional research.

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