서방제재가 러시아 금융시장에 미친 영향: SVAR 분석
Impact of Western Sanctions on Russian Financial Markets: SVAR Analysis
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초록
2014년 우크라이나 사태 발발 이후 러시아는 서방으로부터 경제제재를 받기 시작했다. 시간이 지나면서 서방제재는 개인, 기관, 산업, 무역 등 다양한 부문으로 확대되었고, 2022년 러·우 전쟁 발발로 인해 서방제재는 확대 및 장기화될 것으로 전망된다. 전문가들은 서방제재가 러시아 금융시장의 불안정성 고조시키는 등 러시아 금융시장에 위험요인으로 작용한다고 평가했다. 실제로 제재가 새롭게 도입되는 시기에 러시아 금융 관련 지표들이 출렁였다. 이러한 배경에서 이 연구는 서방제재가 러시아 금융시장에 미친 영향을 분석한다. 이 연구는 2014~19년간의 서방제재를 양적으로 측정할 수 있도록 개발된 지수를 사용하여 SVAR 모형을 통해 서방제재의 직접적인 영향을 분리해 낸다는 점에서 기존 연구들과 큰 차별성을 갖는다. 분석 결과, 서방제재의 영향이 매우 미미하게 나타났는데, 그 이유로 제재지수가 포괄하는 범위가 EU 제재에 국한되며, 해당 시기 제재의 확대 속도가 비교적 완만했다는 점을 들 수 있다. 러시아 금융시장은 해당 시기에는 환율 상승, 유가 하락 등 러시아 경제 자체에서 나타나는 경기악화 요인들의 영향을 더 크게 받았던 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Russia began to face economic sanctions from the West. Over time, Western sanctions have gradually expanded to various sectors such as individuals, institutions, industry, and trade. Western sanctions are expected to enlarge and prolong due to the outbreak of the Russo-U.S. war in 2022. Experts assessed those Western sanctions act as a risk factor for the Russian financial market, including increasing instability in the Russian financial market. In fact, Russian financial indicators fluctuated when new sanctions were introduced. Against this background, this study focused on the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian financial market. This study is significantly different from existing studies in that it isolates the direct impact of Western sanctions through the SVAR model using an index developed to quantitatively measure Western sanctions between 2014 and 2019. As a result of the analysis, the impact of Western sanctions was found to be very minimal. This is because the sanctions index was limited to EU sanctions, and the speed of expansion of sanctions during that period was relatively slow. The Russian financial market was found to have been more affected by factors indicating economic downturn such as an increase in the exchange rate and a decline in oil prices during that period.
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