외교 정책의 새로운 변수로서 리더십: 트럼프 정부와 걸프 국가 간 관계 향방 고찰
Leadership as a New Variable in Foreign Policy: Reassessing U.S.–Gulf Relations during the Trump Administration
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This study examines the relationship between the United States & the Gulf oil-producing monarchies in the context of the Trump administration’s foreign policy following Trump’s return to power. Characterized by unilateralism, isolationism, and realism, Trump’s diplomatic strategy departs from traditional U.S. value-based diplomacy, instead emphasizing transactional diplomacy centered on economic interests and security cooperation. Historically, U.S.–Gulf relations have been shaped by shared strategic interests—such as countering communism during the Cold War, securing energy supplies, & maintaining regional stability. However, Trump redefined these ties in a more pragmatic and personalized manner by advancing his “America First” agenda. During his first term, this approach was embodied in large-scale arms deals, economic cooperation, & his endorsement of the Abraham Accords, which all served to solidify transactional engagement with Gulf states. The Gulf monarchies, facing internal challenges such as regime survival and economic diversification, proved to be optimal partners for this interest-driven approach. In the Trump second term, U.S.–Gulf transactional diplomacy is expected to deepen further. As demonstrated by Trump’s selection of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar as his first official overseas destinations, the emphasis on pragmatic, interest-based diplomacy between the United States and the Gulf monarchies is likely to be reinforced.
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between the United States & the Gulf oil-producing monarchies in the context of the Trump administration’s foreign policy following Trump’s return to power. Characterized by unilateralism, isolationism, and realism, Trump’s diplomatic strategy departs from traditional U.S. value-based diplomacy, instead emphasizing transactional diplomacy centered on economic interests and security cooperation. Historically, U.S.–Gulf relations have been shaped by shared strategic interests—such as countering communism during the Cold War, securing energy supplies, & maintaining regional stability. However, Trump redefined these ties in a more pragmatic and personalized manner by advancing his “America First” agenda. During his first term, this approach was embodied in large-scale arms deals, economic cooperation, & his endorsement of the Abraham Accords, which all served to solidify transactional engagement with Gulf states. The Gulf monarchies, facing internal challenges such as regime survival and economic diversification, proved to be optimal partners for this interest-driven approach. In the Trump second term, U.S.–Gulf transactional diplomacy is expected to deepen further. As demonstrated by Trump’s selection of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar as his first official overseas destinations, the emphasis on pragmatic, interest-based diplomacy between the United States and the Gulf monarchies is likely to be reinforced.