미국의 2018 이란 제재유예조치 이후 한국의 원유 수입 정책 변화: 공공선택이론과 ARDL 모형을 활용한 실증 분석
South Korea's Crude Oil Import Policy after the 2018 U.S. Significant Reduction Exceptions(SRE): A Public Choice Theory and an Empirical Analysis Using the ARDL Model
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This study examines South Korea’s crude oil import policy changes after the 2018 U.S. termination of Iran sanctions waivers (SRE). Applying Public Choice Theory and using the ARDL model with a time-series dataset from 1980 to 2024, the study analyzes the economic and political factors influencing these shifts. Findings indicate that after 2019, South Korea reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern oil and increased imports from the U.S., North Sea, and South America. Non-Middle Eastern imports were more sensitive to price fluctuations, while Middle Eastern imports remained stable. The policy shift was driven not only by economic efficiency but also by strategic energy security and geopolitical considerations. This study empirically highlights the role of economic and diplomatic factors in South Korea’s crude oil import policy and offers insights for future energy security strategies amid global oil market fluctuations.
Abstract
This study examines South Korea’s crude oil import policy changes after the 2018 U.S. termination of Iran sanctions waivers (SRE). Applying Public Choice Theory and using the ARDL model with a time-series dataset from 1980 to 2024, the study analyzes the economic and political factors influencing these shifts. Findings indicate that after 2019, South Korea reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern oil and increased imports from the U.S., North Sea, and South America. Non-Middle Eastern imports were more sensitive to price fluctuations, while Middle Eastern imports remained stable. The policy shift was driven not only by economic efficiency but also by strategic energy security and geopolitical considerations. This study empirically highlights the role of economic and diplomatic factors in South Korea’s crude oil import policy and offers insights for future energy security strategies amid global oil market fluctuations.