한-아세안 FTA 원산지결정기준과 한국의 수입규모에 관한 실증 연구

Abstract

Purpose: There has been active research on the restrictiveness of the rules of origins (ROOs), but there is a shortage of research on the effects of ROOs in the concluded free trade agreements (FTAs) concerning the actual trade volumes after the FTAs come into effect. Thus, this study aims to analyze the effects of the restrictiveness index (RI) on the import size in the South Korea-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) FTA. Composition/Logic: Three regression analyses were conducted based on the data obtained from the Korea Customs Service, Korea International Trade Association, and other FTA related institutions. The present study employed the restrictiveness measurement approach by Estevadeordal (2000) to measure the RI. Findings: The results of the empirical analysis, using the Gravity Model, show that the RI had significant negative (-) effects on the prices of imported goods, which indicates that the restrictiveness of strict and complex ROOs negatively influence the prices of imported goods. However, contrary to expectations, the RI had significant positive (+) effects on the volumes of imported goods. This disparity is because the items in the top ranks were consistently imported even before the South Korea-ASEAN FTA and were anticipated to be imported for many years to come, thus not being influenced by the RI. Originality/Value: The study also analyzed the types of restrictiveness in the South Korea-ASEAN FTA and found that the restrictiveness types were very simple and that the RI concentrated on 4. This raises a need to diversify the types and lower the restrictiveness criteria to promote positive impacts on trade volumes between South Korea and ASEAN member states. If future studies search for a more advanced method to measure the RI, with applications for contemporary situations, then it will produce results that are more advanced.