반덤핑조치의 수입대체 및 수입전환 효과: 미국의 사례
The Effects of Antidumping Measures on Import Substitution and Diversion: The Case of the United States
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반덤핑조치는 수입감소(대체)효과와 수입전환효과를 유발한다. 반덤핑관세부과로 인한 미국시장에서의 수입감소(대체)규모는 1990-1996년 분석기간 중 평균수입액의 8.8%에서 13.3%에 이르는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 반덤핑관세부과로 인한 수입전환효과 즉 수입감소(대체)규모 대비 수입전환규모는 0.48에서 0.75범위에 놓이는 것으로 나타났다. 수입전환효과가 1보다 작다는 것은 반덤핑조치가 산업보호효과를 유발하였다는 것을 시사한다. 주목할만한 사실은 반덤핑조치의 산업보호효과가 국가별, 산업별로 불균등하게 나타났다는 것이다. 국가별로는 반덤핑 대상이 되었던 43개국 중 28개국으로부터의 수입에 대해서 산업보호효과가 발생하였으나 13개국으로부터의 수입에 대해서는 산업보호효과가 나타나지 않았다. 산업별로는 반덤핑관세부과가 35개 산업에 대해서는 산업보호효과를 유발할 수 있었으나 26개 산업에 대해서는 산업보호효과를 유발할 수 없었다.
Abstract
Antidumping duties imposed by the United States during the period 1990-1996 caused a reduction in the average volume of imports of 8.8% to 13.3% in the affected industries, resulting in substantial import substitution. At the same time, antidumping duties brought about an import diversion of a size ranging from 48% to 75% of import substitution made by local production. That import diversion falls short of import substitution implies that import protection was made possible by the imposition of antidumping duties. It is important to note that the import protection effect was unevenly felt by different local producers depending on which industries or which countries were targeted when antidumping duties were imposed. Import protection materialized in 28 out of 43 cases when it was considered against import source countries. On the other hand, it was in 35 out of 61 cases that antidumping duties brought about import protection when considered at the industry level.
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