국제안보에 있어 중견국(middle power)외교: 핵군축 문제사례분석
Middle Power Diplomacy in International Security: A Case Study of Nuclear Disarmament
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이 논문은 7개 중견국의 연합체인 신의제연합(NAC)이 1998년 6월에 결성된 이후부터 2005년 NPT 평가회의에 이르는 기간 동안에 국제 핵군축을 달성하기 위해 전개한 중견국 외교의 추진요인들을 분석한다. 또한 이러한 중견국 외교가 2000년 NPT 평가회의에서 중요한 성과를 거둔 이유들과 2005년 NPT 평가회의에서 아무런 성과 없이 실패한 이유들을 효과적인 중견국 외교의 네 가지 조건인 (1) 적절한 기회, (2) 외교적 역량, (3) 지적 리더십과 창의성, (4) 신뢰성 등을 적용하여 설명한다. 연구의 결과로서 2000년 평가회의에서의 NAC 외교의 성과는 NPT의 강화 필요성의 인식, 효과적인 NAC의 외교방식과 NGO들의 압도적 지지, 핵철폐 규범의 촉진자로서 NAC의 지적 리더십과 실용적인 핵군축 방안의 제시, 핵보유국과 비보유국간의 입장을 조정할 수 있는 NAC의 위상과 신뢰의 확보 등의 요인에 기인한 것으로 분석되었다. 반면에 2005년 평가회의에서 실패할 이유는 핵보유국들의 핵군축 이행의 거부, NAC의 내부적 분열과 리더십의 부재, 핵보유국들의 핵강화정책으로 인한 핵철폐 규범의 약화, 핵비보유국들의 신뢰와 지지를 받지 못한 점 등의 요인들 때문인 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the factors that contributed to the emergence of middle power diplomacy conducted by the New Agenda Coalition (NAC) as a coalition of seven middle powers for international nuclear disarmament. It also explains the reasons for the achievements and failure of NAC’s middle power diplomacy at the 2000 and 2005 NPT Review Conference, respectively. These reasons are provided by applying four conditions for effective middle power diplomacy to the two conference cases: (1) proper opportunity, (2) diplomatic capacity, (3) intellectual leadership and creativity, and (4) credibility. NAC’s diplomatic achievements at the 2000 conference were attributable to such factors as the perceived need for the strengthening of NPT, effective diplomatic means of NAC, overwhelming support from the NGO community, NAC leadership as an entrepreneur of the nuclear abolition norm, and credibility gained from both nuclear-weapon and non-nuclear- weapon states. NAC’s diplomatic failure at the 2005 conference resulted from the following factors: nuclear-weapon states' refusal to implement their commitments to nuclear disarmament, divisions and the absence of leadership within NAC, the weakened nuclear abolition norm, and NAC’s lack of support and credibility.
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