후보자의 이미지와 유권자의 선택 : 컨조인트 분석을 통한 탐색적 연구
Candidate Images and Voters’ Choice : Exploratory Research Using Conjoint Analysis
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유권자의 후보자에 대한 선호는 후보자의 소속정당, 정책이나 경력, 외모 등과 같은 현저한 특성들을 제외하고는 후보자에 대한 정확한 정보나 숙고, 경험에 의해 판단하는 것이 아니라 피상적인 느낌이나 일정한 특징에 의해 전체적으로 후보자를 평가하는 것으로 볼 수 있다. 유권자들은 후보자가 능력이 있고 리더십이 있다는 사실을 잘 알고 또 그렇게 ‘생각해서’ 판단하는 것이 아니라, 후보자가 능력이 있고 리더십이 있다고 ‘느껴서’ 그렇게 판단하는 것이다. 본 연구는 컨조인트 분석을 통해 유권자의 머릿속에 그려진 후보자의 이미지에 대한 선호도를 측정하여 각 변수들의 상대적인 영향력과 각각의 변수들의 부분효과를 측정하고자 하였다. 연구를 통해 분석한 결과, 유권자의 후보자 선호에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 속성은 후보자의 신뢰성이었으며 성향, 신념 순으로 나타났다. 분석을 위한 적합한 설문조사자료가 부재한 상황에서 기존의 설문조사에서 후보자에 대한 선호도를 측정하고 있는 설문문항을 조합하여 후보자의 개인적 특성을 몇 가지로 나누어 분석에 사용하였다. 따라서 분석에 사용된 설문조사자료와 변수 및 변수의 수준에 제한이 있기는 하지만, 그럼에도 불구하고 본 연구는 선거 및 유권자 행태연구 분야의 방법론적 측면에서 컨조인트 분석방법을 적용하여 탐색적으로 분석하고 있다는데 그 의의가 있다.
Abstract
Images are the results of interactions between the message voters receive from candidates and their subjective interpretation of the message. The candidate’s political or electoral issues and other characteristics combine in the voting decision process. People do not judge the candidate because they ‘know’ and ‘perceive’ that he or she has ability and leadership, but because they ‘feel’ that he or she does. This research is focused on the images of the candidate held by voters. This study measures voters’ preferences as they relate to candidate’simages, especially his or her personal characteristics, and analyzes each utility of factors (variables), components, and partial utility of each factor by the conjoint analysis used in marketing. The results show that the most effective factor influencing voters’ preference was the candidate’s confidence, homogeneity-orientation and homogeneity-creed. Existing survey data that measures voters’preferences regarding the candidate were reproduced and used to classify candidate’s personal characteristics. Although thedata, factors, and levels are subject to qualification, it is meaningful to the methodological aspects of electoral and behavioral studies that this research applies the conjoint analysis experimentally.
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