국내 기업의 해외직접투자가 국내투자에 미치는 영향: 기업단위 자료를 이용하여
The Effects of Outward FDI on Domestic Investment in Korea: Using Firm-Level Data
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본고에서는 기업의 해외직접투자가 국내투자를 구축하는지에 대해 다양한 실증분석을 실시하였다. 2000년대 후반의 패널 자료를 활용하여 외부 감사 대상 기업으로 분석대상을 확대하였다. 분석방법으로는 합동자료 회귀분석(Pooled OLS), 패널분석, 내생성 문제를 고려하여 도구변수 분석을, 국내투자와 해외직접투자의 동시결정 가능성을 반영하여 2변수 토빗((bivariate Tobit) 및 SUR 모형을 활용하였다. 합동자료 회귀분석(Pooled OLS)과 패널분석 결과 해외직접투자는 국내투자와 유의하게 양(+)의 관계를 보이는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 도구변수로 수출액과 매출액대비 인건비비율을 활용한 분석에서는 해외직접투자가 국내투자를 증가시키거나 감소시키는지가 분명하게 나타나지 않았다. 2변수 토빗 및 SUR 모형으로 해외직접투자를 실시한 제조업만을 대상으로 분석한 결과에서도 해외직접투자가 국내투자를 대체하거나 보완한다는 근거는 찾을 수가 없었다.
Abstract
We examine whether outward FDI has negative effects on domestic investment in Korea. This analysis is based on firm-level panel data for the period 2007-2011 and the stock companies subject to external audit. Several estimation methods are used for this research such as pooled OLS, random-effect panel analysis, instrument variables analysis, bivariate Tobit, and SUR analysis. This research shows that there is no enough evidence to support that outward FDI has complemented or substituted investment in Korea. Estimation results of pooled OLS and panel analysis show that outward FDI has a positive effect on domestic investment. However, we cannot find significant effects of outbound FDI on domestic investment when we use the log of amount of export and the ratio of labor costs to sales for instrument variables. In addition, we cannot find any evidence that manufacturing firms with outward FDI have replaced or complemented investment in Korea in the short run, using bivariate Tobit and SUR analysis.
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