군용 무인기 개발의 역사와 그 전략적 함의에 대한 연구
A Study on the Historical Development of Military UAVs and Their Strategic Implications
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21세기 들어 무인기에 관심을 보이는 국가들의 숫자가 급격히 늘고 있다. 일련의 혁명적인 기술 발전에 힘입어, 무인기는 ‘3D(the dull, the dirty, and the dangerous: 지루하고 더럽고 위험한)’로 분류되는 광범위한 군사적 임무에 운용될 수 있는 효율적인 수단임이 입증되고 있다. 오늘날 무인기는 인류의 전쟁 역사상 ‘혁신적 기술’로 지칭되었던 전차, 항공기, 미사일, 핵무기와 더불어 미래의 전쟁양상을 변화시킬 수 있는 ‘게임 체인저’로서의 잠재력을 보이고 있다. 본 연구는 미국이 1세기 이상 주도해 온 군용 무인기 개발의 역사에 대한 입체적 분석을 바탕으로, 무인기 및 관련기술의 확산이 남･북한과 지역적 차원의 안보환경, 나아가 미래전에 미치는 영향을 규명해 보는데 그 목적이 있다. 이러한 목적을 위하여, 본 연구는 먼저 압도적 기술력을 기반으로 독점적 위상을 구축해 온 미국의 사례를 중심으로 무인기 개발의 통시적 변화를 당시의 군사적 요구, 국제 안보환경의 변화 및 기술진보라는 세 가지 요인들 간 역동적인 상호작용의 맥락 속에서 상세하게 분석해 볼 것이다. 다음으로, 9/11 테러공격을 계기로 미국이 ‘전세계적 테러와의 전쟁’을 선언한 이래 무인기와 관련기술이 급속히 확산된 범세계적 추세의 현주소를 짚어볼 것이다. 끝으로, 무인기 확산으로 인하여 지역적 차원과 특히 남･북관계에서 국가들 간의 오판, 우발적 충돌 및 대량살상무기 테러, 나아가 미래전 양상 등에 초래될 수 있는 영향 및 전략적 함의를 조망해 보고자 한다.
Abstract
The number of countries that have interests in the development of UAV(Unmanned Aviation Vehicle) have been growing exponentially. UAVs have demonstrated their utilities as efficient means that can be operated in wider range of military missions in 3D (the dull, the dirty, and the dangerous) scenarios. Nowadays, UAVs have potentiality that can be evolved into another “game changer”, capable of transforming the entire landscape of future warfare, such as tanks, airplanes, missiles, and nuclear weapons, all of which were called “revolutionary technologies” in human history. The main purpose of this article is to explore and identify the influence of UAVs and related technologies on inter-Korea relations, regional security environments, and the future warfare upon the basis of multidimensional analysis on the history in the development of military UAVs that the United States has dominated for more than a century. With this researching subject front and center, the paper attempts to analyze chronologically the changes in the evolution of UAVs from the perspective of and, in the context of dynamic interaction among three major factors, namely then military requirements, change in international security situations, and technological advances, focusing on the case of the United States that has maintained the status of dominance and superiority through unparalleled technological power. In addition, it reviews the current state of affairs in the worldwide trend where UAVs and related technologies have been proliferated rather dramatically since the United States declared “Global War on Terrorism” in the aftermath of 9/11 terror attack. Furthermore, this article examines the strategic ramifications and implications of UAV proliferation on miscalculations, accidental confrontations and terror attacks by weapons of mass destruction in the setting of regional, especially South-North Korea, security environments.
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