북한의 도발사례 분석

Abstract

The nK has often infiltrated and provoked against South Korea with various ways and means such as ground, maritime and air, aiming to communize entire Korean Peninsula since Korean War. Such actions of infiltration and provocation have been taken as following cases. First, they have chosen any time and any places. If necessary, they selected the times which they deemed advantageous, regardless of various locations including maritime, air, domestic and abroad. Second, they have employed any ways and means. They applied many kinds of ways and means such as naval vessels, aircraft, artilleries, hijacking and blasting. Even more they selected any kinds of targets such as armed forces, USFK as well as normal people and President. Third, the pattern has been developed in various ways and the strength of provocation and level of threat has been increased steadily. In the beginning a small number of agents and spies infiltrated in the territory of South Korea but as the time passes, the intensity of provocations have been increased steadily as scores of agents’ infiltration, a torpedo attack against ROK navy warship and direct firing toward civilians in the land of ROK happened. Forth, in order to conceal their provocation and maximize effectiveness, they tried to build up tension and performed ‘disguised peace offensive’, subsequently concluding to ‘Peace and War Strategy’ according to the situation and conditions set up in the Korean peninsula. It is very difficult to estimate the time and pattern of nK’s infiltration because identifying their internal situation in advance is quite hard, which nK normally takes provocative action toward ROK in order to overcome internal instibility through the provocation as the survival strategy. Henceforth, nK is possibly supposed to elevate the level of military threat such as nuclear, missile and shelling NWI. Furthermore, non-military threats, known as hacking, electronic warfare, propaganda maneuvers, psychological warfare, will be developed in various ways. The provision and countermeasures against nK’s military& non-military and non-regular provocations should be established as follows. First, we should read the intention and nature of nK’s provocation. Especially, we should be alert to the provocation running parallel with ‘disguised peace offensive’ and it is imperative to have the national and military leaderships’ resolution and nation’s strong willing to make strong reprisals against provocations regardless of escalation of engagements. Second, we should strengthen a deterrence capability by consolidating ROK-US alliance and combined forces. Third, we should build up international cooperation with partner countries with regard to threat of nuclear, missile and non-military provocations by nK. With reflecting on the lesson of continuous provocations by nK for 6 decades since Korean War, also penetrating the strategy of dictatorship survival and sensing the intension and indications of provocation in advance, the preemptive action and military readiness posture should be reinforced.