공공투자에서 추정비용의 정확성: 분석가들은 계획단계에서 의도적으로 비용을 과소평가하는가?
The Accuracy of Estimated Costs in Public Investment: Do Analysts Intentionally Underestimate Costs at the Planning Stage?
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Abstract
While an estimated cost is key information for the public investment,the inaccuracy of it has undermined the usefulness of the information. Manystudies argue that such an inaccuracy is not only because of methodological lim-itations, but also a result of intentional bias due to the self-interest of analysts.This paper tries to examine whether such a self-interest oriented bias in cost esti-mation explains the cost variation between the planning and budgeting stage.According to analyses on the cost estimates of 144 projects considered by theKorean government from 2001 to 2004, I could not find any strong evidencethat the variation is due to analysts’ self-interest. Instead, I suggested that costvariation is highly affected by the way managing project costs especially at theimplementation stage.