노인무임승차 첨두시 요금부과에 따른 수입금 변화 : 수도권 스마트카드자료를 이용하여
Revenue Change by Peak Hour Fare Imposition for Senior Free Ride : Using Seoul Metropolitan Subway Smart Card Data
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초록
본 연구는 수도권 지하철의 노인무임승차에 대하여 오전 및 오후 첨두시간대에 요금을 부과하는 상황을 전제로 지하철 운송기관의 수입금 변화를 추정한다. 스마트카드자료는 노인무임통행에 대하여 요금관 관련된 자료를 생산하지 않고 있다. 따라서 스마트카드자료를 이용해서 노인승객의 요금을 추정하고 운송기관에 수입금으로 배분하는 별도의 방법론에 대한 검토가 요구된다. 본 연구는 노인통행은 출발시간을 기점으로 최소시간경로를 선택하는 가정을 반영하는 동시적 동적통행배정모형을 구축하여 통행경로를 선정하고 이를 기반으로 노인에게부과되는 거리비례요금과 민자기관의 별도 및 독립요금을 추정하고 운영기관의 수입금으로배분하는 모형과 방법론을 구축하고 시연한다. 2019년 및 2020년 COVID-19 전후를 대상으로사례연구를 시행한 결과 서울교통공사의 무임손실을 연간 3600억원에서 오전첨두(07:00-08:59) 에는 6~8% 수준, 오후첨두(18:00-19:59)에는 13~16% 까지 절감될 것으로 분석된다.
Abstract
This study derives quantitative data on how much the fiscal deficit of subway operation agencies can be reduced in the process of charging free rides for the elderly in metropolitan subways during peak periods. In smart card data, every trip of elderly is recorded except fares. Therefore, it is required to establish a methodology for estimating the fares of elderly passengers and distributing them to subway opertation agencies as income. This study builds a simultaneous dynamic traffic allocation model that reflects the assumption that elderly selects a minimum time route based on the departure time. The travel route of the elderly is estimated, and the distance-proportional fare charged to the elderly is calculated based on this, and the fare is distributed by reflecting the connected railway revenue allocation principle of the metropolitan subway operating agencies. As a result of conducting a case study for before and after COVID-19 in 2019 and 2020, it is analyzed that Seoul Metro's annual free loss of 360 billion won could be reduced 6~8% at the morning peak (07:00-08:59), and 13~16% at the morning and afternoon peak (18:00-19:59).
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