복합문화관광시설의 수요추정 개선방안에 관한 연구 - KDI공공투자관리센터 타당성분석 사례를 중심으로 -

Abstract

Currently, demand forecasting in feasibility studies conducted by public institutions fails to play a meaningful role. This is because benefit estimation in cultural facility feasibility studies primarily relies on the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), regardless of actual demand levels. This study addresses this issue by, first, broadening the geographic scope for selecting reference facilities, from a limited local influence area to a nationwide scale, since the choice of reference facilities can significantly impact demand forecasting results. Second, although traditional gravity models assume that demand is inversely proportional to the square of distance and directly proportional to facility size, this study proposes applying weighted adjustments to reflect non-linear increases in demand relative to facility scale. Third, although local fiscal investment feasibility studies attempt to distinguish between existing and new demand through surveys, respondents often find it difficult to answer questions about their future visit intentions and frequencies for hypothetical facilities, because the questions are structured in a way that implicitly requires them to assess whether their demand would be transferred or newly generated. This study proposes improvements to address this limitation in survey design. This study emphasizes that defining reference facilities based on their similarity to the newly proposed project is crucial when applying a gravity model and aims to improve conventional demand forecasting by refining such criteria. Accordingly, it seeks to provide clear and objective guidelines for demand forecasting in feasibility studies conducted by public institutions.