혼합형예측기법과 중력모형을 활용한 관광지수요예측에 관한 연구-춘천시 위도관광지를 중심으로-

Abstract

The study on forecasting tourism demand is a crucial step that must be undertaken before initiating the development of a tourist destination. Tourism development requires significant financial investment, and the capital recovery process extends over a long operational period following project completion. Therefore, demand analysis is a critical process that involves estimating the number of tourists who will visit the developed tourism facilities. This estimation is essential for designing facilities of an appropriate scale based on the anticipated visitor numbers. Previous studies on tourism demand analysis have predominantly focused on evaluating tourist satisfaction after the completion of tourist destinations, often limiting the scope to operational resorts. In contrast, this study conducts demand analysis prior to the development of the tourism destination. The methodology employed in this research integrates various approaches. Specifically, it involves analyzing time-series data from similar resorts in the vicinity of the target tourism destination, along with the number of domestic and international tourists visiting the target area and the province to which it belongs. After a detailed regional analysis, a specific adjustment rate is applied to forecast demand. The predicted number of visitors is then used to calculate the required facility space to accommodate them. The gravity model was utilized to verify the predicted annual number of visitors. The findings indicate that the annual number of tourists visiting Chuncheon Wido Tourism Resort is estimated to be 870,007. This figure is 13,297 fewer than the 883,304 visitors predicted using the mixed model, resulting in a margin of error of 1.5%. This suggests minimal variance between the two models. resulting in a margin of error of 1.5%, suggesting minimal variance between the two models. Consequently, the estimated number of visitors derived from this research has been applied to determine the necessary facility space, and the architectural permits for Chuncheon Wido Tourism Resort are currently being processed based on these findings.